Wetand News

I think I found something important.    But I will let you be the judge.  And I would love to hear from any epidemiologists that read my blog. The number of COVID cases is increasing in Oregon and Washington, while most of the other states are seeing declining or stable COVID caseloads.  The increases are sufficiently worrying that Governor Inslee may reverse the opening of the State. There is a lot of talk about the need to get herd immunity, in which enough of the population will be vaccinated or have had COVID so that the virus lacks sufficient susceptible people for spread.  But no one seems to be sure about what percentage of immune individuals is needed.  60%, 80% or 90%.    Some scientific papers and media accounts suggest we will never get to herd immunity.  But what is the truth? I am not an epidemiologist, but it seems to me that there should be sufficient information to get some real answers to the above questions.   And so I sat down with a cup of coffee (actually several)

The coronavirus crisis is one of the most disruptive events to hit the U.S. in a very long time. Major sectors of the economy are being shuttered, people lives are being altered in the most profound ways, and the nation is facing extreme stress, the implications of which we do not understand. Extraordinarily serious decisions are being made without key information:  how many individuals have active infections?  How many have had the virus and now have immunity?  What percentage of infected individuals have few or no symptoms?  Who is currently infected and needs to be quarantined?  Is the current reduction in cases in Washington and elsewhere mainly the result of social distancing or the herd immunity of an increasing number of individuals that have had the virus? For all these questions, we do not know the answer.  Our best medical scientists and epidemiologists, including a highly respected group at the University of Washington, are making projections of the future progressio