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Showing posts from July, 2020

Smoke Reaches the Northwest, High Temps in Eastern WA, and Marine Air is Poised to Move In

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Smoke is now covering the Northwest, but most of it remains aloft.  The haze was obvious this morning from the SpaceNeedle Pano Cam, as was some mid-level instability clouds (altocumulus and altocumulus castellanus for those of you who enjoy cloud names). But it was in  early morning satellite imagery that the smoke was really evident.  Thursday's mornings visible satellite image around 6 AM showed the smoke clearly (the hazy stuff), with a few mid-level cumulus as well.  Stark shadows of the clouds on the smoke. The National Weather Service HRRR-smoke model shows the distribution of smoke aloft at 5 AM this morning, as diagnosed by their system.  You see the red area near the Oregon/California border?  That is the huge July Complex Fire, which now covers 82,000 acres , and is the biggest source of regional smoke. Such smoke rises and spreads out aloft. We do have some local fires, but those are small and generally under control, and not major sources of regional smoke.  But the re

Extreme Heat and Super Heat Low in Eastern Washington

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Tomorrow should be a record-breaking day in eastern Washington with temperatures surging above 105F in a number of locations, accompanied skin-cracking low humidities and even moderate winds. The forecast surface temperatures for tomorrow are simply stunning, with the Columbia Basin being ground zero for the warmth (the white areas are above 104F!), The map of relative humidity at the same time shows some locations getting down to around 10%---extraordinarily low.  Seattle will be dry....but no where as arid. The eastern Washington/Oregon heat is associated with a feature known as a thermal or heat low , something made clear by the sea level pressure map at that time.   Warm air has less density than cooler air, which contributes to the low sea level pressure.  Look closely and you will see the pressure lines will be close together  over eastern Washington.  Such large pressure differences will produce stong wins, in this care strong easterly winds. With extreme warmth, low humidities,

Mid-90s Today and Significant Wildfire Threat in Eastern Washington

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Today will bring 90s a significant portion of western Washington and some daily high-temperature records will be broken, with many locations getting into the low to mid-90s.  Tomorrow will be 10F cooler, but the real threat will occur later tomorrow in eastern Washington where  very threatening conditions regarding wildfire initiation and growth are probable. Let's start with a graphic I have never shown you before:  the difference in temperature between yesterday and today (for 10 AM).  Warming by 2-12 F over the eastern side of Puget Sound, but cooling along the coast.  Consider that many locations in western WA surged into the mid to upper 80s yesterday, low to mid-90sF is guaranteed for today.   On the other hand, the cooling on the coast is important reflecting lots of low clouds and beginning of the inland movement of marine air. But now the threat.   I have spent a lot of time on wildfire meteorology lately (I have an NSF grant to work on it), and just finished the NW

Hurricane Douglas Hits Hawaii

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If you were planning on an early morning cruise around Oahu and Kauai, you may want to reschedule.... Hurricane Douglas is now buffeting the central and western islands of the Aloha State. Hurricane Douglas this afternoon near Hawaii Hurricanes hitting Hawaii are unusual but not rare.  Here is a map of hurricanes that came within 75 miles of the islands since 1950.  Kauai has been the hurricane hotspot for the islands.  One reason that hurricanes are fairly rare in Hawaii is because the water temperatures are often too cool. The current forecast track takes the storm across Kauai tonight and to the west on Monday.  So the action is going on now and during the next 18 hr. Fortunately, this is a small system, and only a Category 1 storm, with winds reaching 85 mph.  But tropical storm winds (greater than or equal to 39 mph) will hit Kauai and northern part of Oahu during the next day. The maximum winds so far (below) have only gotten to roughly 35 mph at official

Heat Wave Coming to the Northwest

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The past few days have been cooler than normal as marine air inundated the western side of our region.  But that is going to change over the weekend, and by Monday, Seattle may hit 90F and Portland could surge to 100F or more.   So get your fans and cool drinks ready. Our current cool weather has been associated with an upper-level trough of low pressure over the region (see 500 hPa--about 18,000 ft--map below for 8 AM this morning). But things change over the weekend as a significant ridge of high pressure and heights builds along the West Coast...check out the same map for Sunday at 2 PM... 180° change! Ridging brings sinking and warming air over the region...and more important than that, inland pressure rises resulting in offshore (easterly) flow that cuts off western Washington and Oregon from the cool, coastal air. Let me show you the predicted warm up!  The forecast surface air temperatures and winds for 5 PM Saturday, shows 80sF in the Willamette Valley and the C

Cutting the Seattle Police Budget in Half is Both Reckless and Irresponsible

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Seattle has the potential to be one of the great cities of the world, with a stunning physical location, a diverse and creative workforce, home to one of the world's great universities, and the birthplace of important and innovative businesses that have improved the lives of billions across the planet. But this potential is being seriously threatened today, and the future of Seattle's current and future citizens undermined, by political leadership that is determined to take extraordinarily reckless and uninformed steps based on perceived political expediency. No better example exists than the intention by a majority of the Seattle City Council to defund Seattle's Police Department by half.  Let's consider the actual facts and real numbers. The beginning of this movement to defund the police began with the tragic and criminal death of  George Floyd on May 25th in Minneapolis.    The Minneapolis police involved in this murder should feel the full weight of the la

The Longest Shadows in the U.S.?

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Among the other exceptional aspects of the Pacific Northwest, perhaps, just perhaps, we have the longest shadows in the U.S. From what?  Our huge volcanic peaks. Shadow of Mountain Rainier by Troy Mason through a Creative Commons License During the past few weeks I have been viewing some of the early morning imagery from the NOAA/NWS GOES-West weather satellite, which has far higher resolution sensors than previous generation satellites.  And the shadows one can see are amazing. Consider yesterday, July 21.  Here are the GOES visible images at 5:51 and 5:56 AM.  Wow.   In the first picture, the shadow of Mount Rainer extends at least all the way to the Columbia River,  92 miles (149 km) away.  Other major volcanic peaks, such as Adams and Hood also project impressive shadows. Our mountains are actually well-situated to produce long shadows..they are very high compared to their surroundings and there is a major low area (eastern WA) to their east. The Seattle PanoCa

Why is staying so warm tonight?

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I am sitting at my computer right now, with sweat literally covering my face.  It is not cooling off quickly tonight.  And this morning started quite warm, with a very high low temperature. There is a reason. We start with warm air over us today, with highs getting into the mid-80s around Puget Sound, 90s in the south Sound and SW Washington and into the low 100s in eastern Washington (click on image to expand).  Warm air associated with an upper ridge. Each day we have gotten warmer, both for our highs and low (see  temperatures at Sea Tac below) But something else has been happening that has taken away the crisp, refreshing feel of a few days ago, leaving us sweating tonight...the moisture in the air has increased, as measured by the dew point temperature.  The higher the dew point temperature, the more moisture in the air.  Here is a plot of the dew point at Sea Tac Airport the last few days--major shift upwards from around 50 to 60F.  You can feel that.   More moi