Wetand News

Last night, as the sun was setting on the Olympics, the approaching California smoke was apparent.   Listen on Google Podcasts KNKX and Cancel Culture is found  style="color: #888888; text-decoration-line: none;">here .

 An unwanted California import is now approaching and on satellite photos its ominous tendrils are reminiscent of dementors and deadly hallows of Harry Potter fame. A recent (11 AM)  visible satellite image is worrisome (see below), with northward-bound smoke from California now extending over most of the Oregon coast and starting to extend above the southern Willamette Valley. style="color: #888888; text-decoration-line: none;">here .

I am really sorry to be the messenger for ill news. But smoke is coming back to the Northwest later tomorrow and will be with us for several days. California smoke. style="color: #888888; text-decoration-line: none;">here . My 101 Class As I have mentioned before, I am teaching Atmospheric Sciences 101, an introduction to weather and climate, this fall.  Not surprisingly, it will have to be online (Zoom).    But perhaps this is a rare opportunity as well. As you know from this blog, I am really into outreach to the community through my blog and podcast (and previously my radio segment on KNKX).   I would like to try doing outreach this quarter with the online 101. If you are over 60, you can sign up for the wonderful  UW Access program , where for only a few dollars (I believe 5), you can audit UW classes.   So I encourage all of those interested in taking the class to do so.  Access students can't register until the third day of class, but I can give them the zoom

Last night I was outside and I heard large numbers of unseen birds overhead.  It is that time of the year. In fact, there is now a bird migration alert for our region, as provided by the wonderful style="color: #888888; text-decoration-line: none;">here .

  style="color: #888888; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">some background information here ) and discuss why they rejected key foundations of freedom of speech and diversity of viewpoint that are critical for maintaining our democracy. If you would like to support the creation of the podcast , please visit my  Patreon site . 

My Weekend Podcast Should be Online by 9 AM Tomorrow (Friday) _______________________________________________________________ Atmosphere rivers are strong, relatively narrow currents of enhanced moisture that stream out of the tropics or subtropics into the midlatitudes.   And when they extend into our region and are forced to rise by our terrain, they are potent precipitation producers. Atmospheric moisture can be observed by weather satellites by sensing the radiation emitted by water vapor, producing information and beautiful graphics like the one shown below for earlier today (Thursday).  You will note that the greatest amounts of water vapor is in the tropics (purple and dark red colors), which makes sense since warm air can pick up lots of water vapor from the tropical ocean.   style="color: #888888; text-decoration-line: none;">here .

Autumn began at 6:30 AM this morning and the atmosphere is clearly watching the calendar. Tomorrow will bring the first of a series of wet weather systems,  each associated with a potent atmospheric river,  that will bring as much as TEN inches of precipitation to the northern Cascades and Olympics.    As a result, wildfire season in Washington State will be coming to an abrupt close. Precipitation will be heaviest during two periods, one tomorrow and the other on Saturday, when atmospheric rivers--narrow currents of large water vapor values--will make landfall on our coast.   Here is the forecast atmospheric moisture content at 8 AM tomorrow (Wednesday), with the blue and white colors indicating the largest water vapor values.  When the water vapor current rises on our local terrain it is forced to condense, resulting in bountiful precipitation. style="color: #888888; text-decoration-line: none;">here .

this reference ).   Importantly, during the past century, few major fires has burned over western slopes of the Oregon Cascades, with the most prominent being the Yacolt Burn (1902, 500,000 acres) and the Eagle Creek Fire (2017, 50,000 acres), both near the Columbia Gorge east of Portland.  Interestingly, there has been far more fire activity over the coastal mountains of Oregon than along the western slopes of the Cascades during the past 120 years.  Thus, many of the recent fires along the western Cascades slopes were burning across terrain that had not experienced major fires in over a century. Fires and their sizes since 1900 over Oregon. Image created by Lynne Palombo of the Oregonian. Strong Easterly Winds Are Necessary for Major Wildfires on the Western Slopes of the Cascades It has long been known that major wildfires over the western slopes of the Oregon Cascades have been limited to periods of sustained, strong easterly winds (from the east).   To quote a clas

As the models have been signaling for days, air quality over western Oregon and Washington has improved dramatically over the past 24 h, with much of the region enjoying relatively clean air (green colors on the map below).  Clean air is surging over the Cascades and should soon displace the smoky air over the NW side of WA and northern Idaho. style="color: #888888; text-decoration-line: none;">here .

target="_blank">some background information here ),  and I have an extensive update prepared ( KNKX Surrenders to Cancel Culture ) that I will post next week as well. If you would like to support the creation of the podcast , please visit my  Patreon site . 

 One of the most amazing aspects of this event is the staying power and long-range transport of wildfire smoke.  A view of the eastern Pacific shows bands of smoke pulled offshore from the West Coast, swirling and moving around for many days (see picture).  I have indicated a few offshore smoke features with arrows, as well as  a Pacific low center (L), and a tropical storm (T).  This Pacific will act as a long-term repository of smoke that will move in intermittently for days after we go through the expected clearing on Saturday. style="color: #888888; text-decoration-line: none;">here .

 We can finally see forward to the end of this terrible smoke event over western Washington and Oregon. But first let me show you something that will impress.   Below is a composite MODIS weather satellite image for yesterday, a picture that shows West Coast smoke extended over the entire continent.  In New York or DC this morning, people will view a hazy sky and a weakened sun from the West Coast fires; in fact, the smoke extended well into the Atlantic. style="color: #888888; text-decoration-line: none;">here .

 To understand the current situation, it helps to stand back and look at the essential meteorology.  It explains quite a bit of why we are stuck in the current unpleasant situation. > I criticized their story on CO2 increases causing oysters in factory facilities to die.   Their stories on climate change in the region have been particularly inaccurate. There is sometimes a very heavy price to pay for honestly and objectively talking about some environmental issues (and other issues as well).  In a free society, diversity of viewpoints should be celebrated and honored, not suppressed.  Citizens can only make good decisions if they have objective information. Fortunately, I have this blog and can communicate directly to all of you, allowing YOU to evaluate the fidelity and value of the information I am trying to communicate.   That is why I give you my chain of logic and show you so many figures/data.  _____________________ My latest podcast: The podcast is also availa

Things are looking far more pessimistic this morning, with considerably less improvement in western WA and OR air quality than expected yesterday. And these problems are highlighting issues with our modeling systems and ability to observe/simulation smoke in the lower atmosphere.   Paradoxically, such problems are what modelers like me live for, providing opportunities to learn and improve our systems. Air quality has not improved overnight, as shown by the summary at 4 AM this morning from the excellent W style="color: #888888; text-decoration-line: none;">here .

 The air quality situation remains very poor this morning, with the murk heightened by the mixture of fog and low stratus over portions of western Washington.  Red (unhealthy) air over Puget Sound, very unhealthy (purple) air over the coast and eastern Cascade slopes), and hazardous (dark purple) air over the Willamette Valley and southeast Washington.   style="color: #888888; text-decoration-line: none;">here .

Have you taken a look at the temperature forecasts on your favorite smartphone app or online service? Most are predicting temperatures that are crazy warm by as much as 15-20F! Yet, the National Weather Service forecasts are reasonable. Why? Before I explain, let's review what is going on right now. The latest satellite image shows an area of deeper smoke has moved northward over western Washington.  Smoke has also moved into eastern Washington.  Only the north Cascades is in the clear. At low levels, marine air and low cloud have pushed into portions of western Washington.  With more smoke aloft, solar radiation will decline over western Washington today, providing an infernal murk that is a bit depressing. The current air quality situation is similar to yesterday afternoon with unhealthy conditions over the region and very unhealthy particulate levels at some coastal locations and the Willamette Valley.  Hazardous condition are found in the Willamette Valley and nor

Note:  my new podcast on the smoke situation is up (information at the bottom) __________________ What a difference a few days make.  Here is the view of Seattle from the SpaceNeedle PanoCam at 8:30 AM this morning.  Apocalyptic. . style="color: #888888; text-decoration-line: none;">here .

My podcast this week starts with the forecast, with particular attention to the area of dense smoke that will move in on Friday.  I will give the weekend forecast and tell you about a major weather change next week. In my extra-topic segment I will talk about whether global warming had an impact in causing the fires on the western slopes of the Oregon Cascades. style="color: #888888; text-decoration-line: none;">here . _____

There is the potential for a major degradation of air quality over Puget Sound, a threat serious enough that vulnerable folks should be prepared. Specifically, it is looking increasingly likely that some of the dense smoke produced by the fires in western Oregon will move northward and northeastward into western Washington, producing a serious degradation of air quality . Potentially as bad or worse than we experienced in 2017 and 2018.  The visible satellite image for today (top, 10:31 AM) and yesterday afternoon (bottom, 5:01 PM) shows the story.  There is a dense plume of wildfire smoke over northwest Oregon from the massive fires, and that plume of smoke is slowly moving northward. style="background-color: white; color: #888888; font-family: "times new roman", times, freeserif, serif; font-size: 22px; text-decoration-line: none;">here . If you want to support this blog and my podcast you can do it through  Patreon : .

The visible satellite image this morning shows huge contrasts over the region.  Modest smoke over the western WA lowlands, a bit denser smoke over the western side of the Columbia Basin, and dense, horrific smoke over western Oregon from a series of active fires on the western slopes of the Oregon Cascades.  Also note a lack of smoke at higher elevation over Washington (hint: you could take a nice higher-elevation hike in clean air). The event in western Oregon is huge, involving hundreds of thousands of acres. >here . If you want to support this blog you can do it through Patreon :

Last night, major fires developed along the western slopes of the northern Oregon Cascades, and another large fire was initiated northeast of Portland.  The latest visible satellite image shows the unfortunate situation (see below).  You can see wildfire smoke over Puget Sound and Northwest Washington, something evident if you walk outside--the smell of smoke is strong in Seattle and visibility is greatly degraded.    But look over northwest Oregon, where a massive fire is burning on the western Cascade slopes (the Beachie Creek fire).  Another fire is burning at and near the crest (Lionshead).  A large, unnamed fire is evident over the southern WA Cascades (blue arrow) style="color: #888888; text-decoration-line: none;">here . If you want to support this blog you can do it through  Patreon :

I have some amazing imagery to show.  Stunning stuff. Let me begin with a visible satellite image at 6:41 PM.  Incredible .  Smoke covers much of eastern Washington and and is moving into the Willamette Valley and southwest Washington.    On the verge of reaching Seattle.  But what is absolutely amazing to me are the striations-- wave-like features that indicates atmospheric gravity waves in the smoke layer. style="color: #888888; text-decoration-line: none;">here If you want to support this blog you can do it through  Patreon :

This is rapidly becoming a major event.   Strong winds, gusting to 50-70 mph, has caused a dust storm that has closed major roads in eastern Washington (e.g., I-90 and US-2).   Here is a recent satellite image, with the oval centered on the dust storm area (dust is apparent by the brown colors).  The winds have initiated several fires--I put orange arrows to indicate a few. style="color: #888888; text-decoration-line: none;">here . _____ Support this blog on  Patreon :

The forecast dry wind event has begun, with a fire exploding in Okanagan County south of Omak.  But potentially, the worst is yet to come. The first step in this event was the push of northerly winds into the region, particularly east of the Cascade crest.  As strong northerlies entered northeast Washington, the Cold Spring Fire began south of Omak.  It went from zero to around 10,000 acres with a few hours and the smoke from it extends southward across eastern Washington (see image, arrow points to fire) style="color: #888888; text-decoration-line: none;">here . _____ My  Patreon site :

When one thinks of major Northwest wildfires, the region east of the Cascade crest normally comes to mind. But major wildfires can strike the western slopes of the Cascades, the Olympics, and the coastal mountains of Oregon, when conditions are just right. style="color: #888888; text-decoration-line: none;">here . _____ My  Patreon site :

Starting today and available every Friday, I will be providing a weather podcast, available through my blog and a number of podcast channels (such as Spotify, Apple, Google, and more). Each podcast will review the current weather situation, talk about the forecast, and provide insights into local weather features, weather events, or weather concepts. style="color: #888888; text-decoration-line: none;">here . _____

style="color: #888888; text-decoration-line: none;">here . _____

Summers are typically dry in the Northwest, but by now the probability of precipitation typically rises significantly. But this year we can look forward to a very dry end of summer--with no moisture for the next week or more.    The precipitation anomaly (difference from normal) for the West Coast  over the past month shows an interesting story (see below).  Most of Washington has been slightly drier than normal, particularly the western slopes of the Cascades.    The southwest U.S. has been particularly dry, since the southwest "Monsoon", which typically brings thunderstorms in July and August to Arizona and New Mexico, has been much weaker than normal (a.k.a., the NONSOON).   And parts of California have been wetter than normal due to tropical moisture pushing northward (and causing all the lightning that ignited California). style="color: #888888; text-decoration-line: none;">here . _____