Wetand News

 When I woke up this morning and looked out, very dense fog dominated the landscape (see below). I smiled to myself:  a "clear" sign of a very good day ahead with plenty of sun. Or take a look at the amazing image from the SpaceNeedle PanoCam at 7:10 AM this morning.  A dense fog layer is below, but the tops of high buildings extend above the murk and if you closely, Mount Rainier is in the distance.  Above, blue skies and some beautifully illuminated cirrus clouds. Very dense fog is inevitably shallow and forced by high pressure aloft, with clear skies above that allow intense cooling at the surface, which effectively radiates infrared radiation to space when clouds are not in the way.  Such intense radiative cooling brings the moist layer near the surface down to the dew point, and condensation occurs--producing the dense fog. The latest visible satellite image shows the story from space, with the fog evident at lower elevations, but clear skies above a few hundred feet.

Believe it or Not! On average, we are now past the worst weather of the winter!  Shocking but true.  And in the second segment of my podcast, I tell you why. Take a look at the daily probability of experiencing .25 inches or more  in Seattle (below).  Mid to late November is the time of the year when you have best chance to "enjoy" such a wet day and the probabilities actually drop in December and January. What about a plot of daily extreme rainfall in Seattle?   November has the most with December being relatively more benign (below). There is a reason for this situation and it has to do with the strength and position of the jet stream.  Check my podcast to find  out. And the podcast also includes the forecast for this week, which will include unusually dry, sunny conditions and powerful easterly flow on the western side of the Cascades. Here is my podcast: Click the play button to listen or use your favorite streaming service Or stream my podcast from your favorite services

I received a half-dozen emails yesterday about a very odd feature apparent on the National Weather Service radar at Hoquium.   Let me just show you! Here is the lowest elevation radar image at 1:30 PM yesterday (Wednesday).   Red indicates very, very heavy rain, with yellow and orange just plain heavy.   What a bizarre looking feature crossing the coast, with undulations and regular gaps between heavy precipitation segments! We learned about this features during the 1970s when the first radars were placed on the coast during some weather field experiments. The feature in question is a narrow cold front rainband, associated with an unusually strong cold front crossing the coast. Impressively, our high resolution forecast models were able to predict this strong front, as illustrated by the predicted surface winds, sea level pressure, and temperatures around 800 m above the surface at 1 PM (see below).   A very strong pressure trough (area of low pressure) is evident as is a very sharp wi

One reason why research is so much fun is that once in a while you learn something important that is unexpected.  A new and highly significant finding.  I had such a "wow" experience recently regarding the September wildfires that caused so much damage and smoke on the western slopes of the Cascades. Currently, I have a research grant form the National Science Foundation, and smaller grants with the USDA Forest Service and WA DNR, to work on wildfire/weather issues. Recently, our group has completed three papers on the intersection of weather/climate with wildfires:  on the Wine Country Fires of 2017, the Camp Fire of 2019, and Diablo downslope winds of northern CA. I was working on a paper on the meteorology of the great western Oregon/Washington wildfires, when the big Labor Day Oregon wildfire siege occurred.  So naturally my group turned to understand the event. Why did this major event happen?  How did it evolve? Was something unusual going on?  How well was it forecast?

 During the past week, I have gotten a number of emails asking about the weather on Thanksgiving Day.    Why?  Because a number of folks are planning on having their holiday meal outside in their garage, with the door open, to lessen the risk of COVID-19 transmission. And it is true: a comprehensive search of the medical literature suggests little evidence of outdoor transmission.   COVID-19 spread is predominantly a problem in indoor spaces with poor ventilation, particularly when large number of people stay in such spaces for a sustained period of time.   COVID-19 particle concentration levels are critical--lowering the concentrations can greatly reduce the risk and the severity of the disease if you get it.  Outside, there is a huge amount of dispersion of particles, so concentration are inevitably low. So enjoying your meal in a garage with open doors greatly lessens the risk of COVID-19, no doubt about it .  And the latest forecasts suggest western Washington will have a dry Than

  During the past week, two strong windstorms have influenced our region, with the most intense storm crossing the tip of Vancouver Island.   My podcast will be a little longer today, with a detailed view of some of the great Pacific cyclones that have hit our region.   And I will also review the forecast, with specific emphasis on this weekend and Thanksgiving Day.   A hint: look forward to a pleasant Thanksgiving Day stroll before your turkey! The strongest eastern Pacific Cyclones Can Be the Equal of Category 1-2 Hurricanes Here is my podcast: Click the play button to listen or use your favorite streaming service Or stream my podcast from your favorite services:   Listen on Apple Podcasts   Listen on Spotify Podcasts   Listen on Google Podcasts Would you like to support the podcast?  If so, click the Patreon box below.  Support on Patreon KNKX-Related Blogs: KNKX, James Madison and Mobs KNKX and the Undermining of American Freedom Firing from KNKX

Here in the Northwest, we are enjoying one of the most bountiful early snow periods in years.  Crystal Mountain ski area opened yesterday and Mount Baker opens tomorrow.    Want to be impressed?  Below is the current percentage of normal snowpack, and specifically the snow water equivalent (SWE, the total amount of water in the snow) of the snow that has piled up so far.   Amazing .  The entire Northwest is not only above normal, but WAY about normal, like 441% of normal in the Olympics.  The kind of map that skiers and water managers like to see. But let me make this even more concrete.  The graphics below show the snow depth this year versus the last two years.  Notice a difference?   Huge. This Year                                                            Last Year                                             Two Years Ago And there is more positive news.  Here is the latest UW forecast for accumulated snow over the next week.  Major additions, with as much as three feet of snow at

James Madison, the primary author of the U.S. Constitution, knew that all democracies had a serious vulnerability . A vulnerability revealed by his study of how democracies fail, and discussed in several of his writings, including Federalist No. 10. James Madison Madison found that most democratic societies were ended by mobs , or what he often called factions .  Such mobs or factions, often representing the majority, inevitably attempted to suppress differing viewpoints, gathered state power to themselves, and used intimidation against opponents. He noted that democracies rarely die from outside attack; instead, they die from the dominance of an unfettered majority, which often falls under the control of an authoritarian leader or leadership group. Madison attempted to design the new Federal government of the United States to lessen the potential for such mob power. Power was divided between the States and the Federal government.  In the Federal government, power was separated into t