Wetand News

Even before the heatwave, there was great concern about the potential for wildfires this summer.  But now the worry is heightened and palpable. My central point in this blog is that we could profoundly reduce the wildfire risk by taking some prudent steps immediately, but that will require state leaders to act with more energy and purpose than in the past. Specifically, the state must: (1) immediately call for a ban on the use of personal fireworks, and (2) establish a comprehensive, coherent policy for de-energizing powerlines, guided by highly skillful weather forecasts. The Lower Elevation of the Eastern Part of Our State is Ready to Burn Due to the relatively dry spring and the warm temperatures of the past week, the eastern portion of the state is dry enough to burn.  Now, a dry eastern Washington during summer is not unusual, but because of the dry/warm start, eastern Washington is several weeks advanced in fire potential.    So the conditions now are like those typically observe

  It's over.    Throughout the region, all-time temperature records have been broken, if not smashed.   Just to name a few: SeaTac hit 108F, beating the previous record of 103F. Olympia reached 109F, exceeding the previous record of 105F Quillayute, on the WA coast, zoomed to 110F, absolutely smashing the previous record of 99F Portland hit 116F, incinerating the previous record of 107F. In eastern Washington, Dallesport tied the all-time state record of 118F East of I5, many locations in western Washington exceeded 110F yesterday. Some High Temperatures Over the State, Click to Expand Believe it or not. Seattle now has a higher record maximum temperature than Miami, Atlanta, Washington DC,  or Chicago.  Portland's record high exceeded that of Houston, Austin, or San Diego.   Over 50 observing sites in western Washington surged above 110F You want record high temperatures?  Come to the Northwest!   But we had not only had extreme heat....far beyond that observed over the past c

What is going to happen during the next few hours can only be described as weather whiplash. Here is the latest super high-resolution temperature forecast for 5 PM today over western Washington.  Much of the western lowlands away from the water will be above 104F (light brown) and limited areas will surge about 110F.  I expect some localized hot spots around 115F.  Just extraordinary.   You will also note the onshore movement of cool air off the coast: an incipient onshore push of marine air. SeaTac Airport is now running 8 degrees above normal and with its record-breaking 104F yesterday, it will certainly get near 110F today. Particularly since it is in a particularly favorable area of easterly downslope flow off the Cascades. The difference between the temperatures at 11:30 AM today and yesterday is quite revealing (see below). MUCH cooler along the southwest coast (15-35F!), but much warmer from Seattle southeastward.  This is the result of the well-predicted southeasterly f

 If you are living west of the Cascade crest of Oregon and Washington, tomorrow will be a day you will never forget. The latest model runs, all at very high resolution, show even more profound extremes than previously predicted.  And the end of the event will be extraordinary, with temperatures falling by as much as 50F within a few hours. Our upcoming weather Records Already Broken    Many records fell yesterday, including a new all-time high temperature at Portland (108F) and daily or monthly records falling at dozens of stations.  But his is nothing compared to what will happen now. Situation Right Now (Noon Sunday) A fascinating plot (below, click on image to expand) shows you the 24-h temperature change--how we stack up temperature-wise compared to exactly one day ago.   Along the SW WA coast, some locations are 15-30F warmer, because of the switch to easterly (from east) winds--pushing away the cool, ocean air.  But look at the Portland area ...many locations are 10-15F wa

 Update at 1PM Sunday.  I will talk not only about the records but something else...the amazing temperature drop late Monday...one for the record books. ______________________________ As we get closer to the big heat event, powerful new forecasting tools are becoming available.  Tools that provide a higher resolution and more nuanced view of the extreme heatwave event that is about to happen. One such tool is ultra-high resolution numerical weather prediction models.  My group at the University of Washington runs the highest-resolution operational weather prediction system in the region, with a grid spacing of 1.3 km.  High enough resolution to get many of the local water bodies approximately correct, as well as the impacts of our regional terrain features. Let me show you the surface air temperatures predicted today through Monday...all shown at 5 PM.  Today, Portland and the lower Columbia Basin surges above 100F and Seattle rises into the upper 90s. The kind of conditions we typical

 I think I understand why the temperatures in western Oregon and Washington will be so stunningly extreme on Sunday and Monday. A unique combination of factors will come together to make the unthinkable possible.  Forget the "heat dome" explanations found in the Seattle Times and some media outlets, or those saying that the extreme heat can only be explained by global warming. I will call the phenomenon a downslope heat surge on the western slopes of the Cascades.    A relative of the extreme heat associated with Santa Ana winds in southern California, but with a twist. An Unusual Collection of Ingredients To get this amazing event, a series of ingredients had to occur at the same time and same place.  To put it another way, it is like throwing several dice and having all of them come up with sixes. Ingredient One:  An unusually strong area of high pressure aloft over our region (known as an upper-level ridge), associated with sinking air and unusually warm temperatur

Update Podcast and Blog Today (Friday) Around Noon  ________________________________________________ There are two possibilities: The Northwest will soon experience one of the most incredible weather situations in many decades   There is a major flaw in virtually all of our weather prediction system Quite frankly, I am somewhat in shock looking at the raw forecast model predictions or the statistically calibrated versions of their output.  The event being predicted is so extreme and so beyond expectation that my natural inclination is to dismiss it.   But I can't.   Multiple modeling systems are essentially doing the same thing.  Large ensembles of many forecasts are showing similar solutions from most of the runs. Let me show you the latest. An important issue will be proximity to water and to get that right, high-resolution forecasts are important, so let me start by presenting the latest UW high-resolution simulations.  The situation is so extreme that I had the colors altered t