Wetand News

It didn't take long before the media "connected the dots" and made full-throated claims that Hurricane Ida was the stepchild of global warming.     Even well-known TV weather personality Al Roker (who I very much admire) got into the act: "We are looking at the results of climate change ... that's what created this monster storm" But it is easy to demonstrate that real data shows that these claims are without basis, and that National Public Radio, the Seattle Times, and others are publishing stories that are contradictory to the best science and observations. The hypothesis in all these stories is that human-caused climate change warmed the temperatures of the sea surface (e.g., the Gulf of Mexico, tropical Atlantic) and thus "supercharged" Hurricane Ida. Now the first thing that a responsible journalist would do regarding Ida would be to determine whether the Gulf of Mexico, where Ida developed, had significantly above-normal temperatures last w

A major hurricane is hitting the Gulf at just the wrong place for New Orleans and environs. Hurricane Ida, a category four hurricane with winds gusting to 150 mph is now making landfall. The latest weather radar image (showing intensity of precipitation) clearly shows the eye of the storm (letter E!), just making landfall on the Lousiana coast (below).   Ida has a compact eye, with the eyewall apparent in the precipitation band indicated by the blue arrow.   A secondary eyewall appears to be forming (red arrow), which is temporarily weakening the storm (it might have become a category five storm if the second eyewall did not start to form. The infrared satellite picture (which is essentially providing the temperature of the clouds and surface) is impressive-- the eye is small, but well defined, with high clouds (red colors) surrounding it. The small size of the eye is a very good thing because the strongest winds are limited to the area in the eyewall of the storm.   Here are the lates

We are now in the season of large, catastrophic wildfires west of the Cascade crest.  Mid-August to mid-September is ground zero for historic fires over the western slopes of the Cascades and coastal mountains of our region. Picture courtesy of Bureau of Land Management But why are major westside wildfires limited to this season?   This podcast will explain why and describe the essential requirements for major fires west of the Cascade crest. I will also touch on the impacts of global warming....and my conclusions, based on considerable research, may surprise you. Finally, I start the podcast with the forecast, which promises no major heatwaves, but near-perfect conditions over the weekend. You can listen to the podcast here: Or access the podcast on all major services.     Like the podcast? Support on Patreon  Become a Patron!

It feels like fall like now, as a Pacific cold front moves through the region.   The winds have started to gust, temperatures have fallen into the mid to low 60s, and leaves are blowing around outside. The front was apparent in the forecast this morning, as an area of lower pressure and a sharp wind shift (see surface map for 8 AM).  I have indicated the front with a blue line. And as it passed through this afternoon, there was a band of light rain, clouds increased, and the winds strengthened.   Here is the radar around 1 PM..you can see the rain. And by 5 PM, the front had reached the Cascades, with increased westerly winds behind it.   Winds that wrapped around the Olympics and converged over Puget Sound, producing a Puget Sound convergence zone (see surface weather map at 7 PM).  Northwesterly flow north of Seattle, southwesterly flow to the south. The air converging a low levels forces air to rise, producing clouds and precipitation, something you can see in the latest radar image

One of the most interesting aspects of warm-season weather of our region is the northwest winds that descend the eastern slopes of the Cascades during the summer. During the mid to late afternoon, the northwesterly winds (from the northwest) tend to increase, peaking during the evening and weakening during the early morning hours. Sometimes the winds can gust to 30-40 mph, so this zephyr can be a significant blow. Impressively, these downslope winds can push well into the Columbia Basin, often reaching the Tri-Cities. Picture by minniemouseaunt Such evening winds are important for many reasons. They provide substantial and reliable power for the wind turbines that have been positioned over and downwind of the eastern slopes of the Cascades. Such winds can really rev up wildfires over the eastern Cascades slopes and provide a substantial danger to the community and firefighters.   There is a good reason that many eastside fires make major runs during the evening! This important local we

After one extreme heatwave and one minor one, folks are heatwave concerned, so I thought I would provide some good news.   The chances of a major warm spell, with temperatures over 90F west of the Cascades and over 100F in eastern WA, is become increasingly unlikely, based on the latest forecasts. And then consider the time of the year.  The sun is rapidly weakening now and nights are lengthening quickly.  And in addition, the atmosphere has switched into what I call a La Nina pattern, with a big ridge of high pressure offshore, with cooler northerly flow over the West Coast. But first some climatology. Here is a plot of the climatology of extreme high temperatures for Seattle (yellow lines).  Heatwave central is in late July and early August.  The record highs decline in August, have occasionally risen to the mid-90s in early September, but never have gotten above 95F after mid-September and just reacj 90F by late September.  The bottom drops out in October. Our forecast models have s

While June was sunny and warm, August is turning cool and cloudy--and that will be the story during the next 4-5 days I am afraid. Today will barely get to 70F in western Washington....and forget 90s in most of eastern Washington. Low clouds have spread across western Washington and they aren't moving out very fast.  Smoke is found east of the Cascade crest. Saturday will be a bit warmer....low 70s in the west and there could well be some sprinkles, particularly over the western slopes of the Cascades.  A weak disturbance moving south out of BC will rev up the clouds on Sunday, followed by an improving trend on Monday. The big weather action will be on the east coast where Hurricane Henri may hit eastern Long Island on Sunday morning!  The NOAA HWRF forecast is shown below for 5 AM PDT Sunday.  Wow. My podcast will talk about the forecast, but more importantly, I will review the upcoming La Nina situation in some depth.  Really good news for water resources in the Northwest, bad ne