Wetand News

The moisture channel satellite image at 1 PM  is stunning and ominous (see below), with a huge plume of water vapor distorted into the characteristic structure of an intense midlatitude cyclone.  I place an "L" at the position of the low pressure center and noted the intrusion of dry air (black colors) that indicates the trailing sinking of a major storm.   Listen on Google Podcasts Or you can listen to it here: Click the play button to listen or use your favorite streaming service My blog on KNKX and the Undermining of American Freedom is found  style="color: #888888; text-decoration-line: none;">here . 

In meteorology we have a name for midlatitude storms that intensify explosively.  Such storms, known as meteorological bombs , occur when the central low pressure of a storm drops at least 24 hPa in twenty four hours.   (A hPa is a unit of pressure, also known as a millibar.) The forecast models are now emphatic that such explosive development will occur tonight and tomorrow over the eastern Pacific, with the resulting intense low pressure center headed for the northern tip of Vancouver Island. Take a look at the latest forecast for Tuesday at 11 AM shown below:  a 961 hPa low center! Wow.   One of the deepest lows to approach our region in years.  Our typical low center dropx to around 990 hPa and the greatest storm of all...the Columbus Day Storm of 1962 was 955 hPa.   (note the figures shows sea level pressure, shown every 1 hPa)   Listen on Google Podcasts Or you can listen to it here: Click the play button to listen or use your favorite streaming service My blog on KNKX and the Un

Very heavy snow has fallen in the mountains, with several feet in the passes and above.  Current depths include: 41 inches at Mount Baker Ski area 43 inches at Stevens Pass 47 inches at Paradise at Mount Rainier Paradise Visitor Center on Mount Rainier And the latest UW WRF total snowfall between this morning and Thursday afternoon shows a lot more coming:  several feet more in the Cascades (see below).    And even decent snow in Winthrop and Mazama, where there is nearly a foot on the ground right now. What about uncertainty in the forecast?    Good question.  We always need to consider that.  Below is a "plume diagram" of the snowfall at Stampede Pass (4000 ft) for the many forecasts of the NOAA/NWS GFS ensemble system (called GEFS).  Looking at many forecasts, all slightly different, is a good way to explore the uncertainty of a forecast.  The black line is the mean of all the forecasts. There is some uncertainty , but all the forecasts show bountiful snow, with roughly 25

It is Friday the thirteenth and Mother Nature is throwing everything at us: extremely strong winds on the Oregon Coast and heavy snow in the mountains (more on that below) .   My new podcast gives you the latest forecast for the week ahead and answers a question many of you are asking:  what about this winter?  I believe I can give you some solid information on the cool, wet, snowy winter ahead.   Listen on Google Podcasts Would you like to support the podcast?  If so, click the Patreon box below.  Support on Patreon The winds along the Oregon coast this morning have been extraordinary with gusts to 80-90 mph (see map below).  There have been many power outages. Even the Washington Coast has had some serious wind from the passing low, including gusts to 50-60 mph. And then there is the snow!  The mountains have been hit hard, with 1-2 feet.  You will need chains to cross Snoqualmie Pass this morning (see picture).  November in the Northwest is historically the period of most active we

 If you a skier you should be excited and if you live along the southern Washington or Oregon coasts, get ready for a major blow. Let's start with approaching Pacific storm.  It is going to be significant. This is difficult forecast with substantial uncertainty,  less so now that we are within 48h of the action.  The storm that is going to hit the Northwest on Friday is hardly even formed right now and located 2800 miles away.  I have circled its location on a recent infrared satellite picture below. So have have to forecast the evolution and intensification of this storm over that vast distance.  And yes, get the right location of landfall.  If we are off by 50 miles the forecast will be very, very different for virtually everyone. To put it another way. Imagine a long bowling alley (typically 60 ft long and 42 inches wide) and demanding that you had to be within six inches of a pin.  And do so while your ball is changing in size, speed, and direction.  Impossible you say?  This i

I will have an update on the storm and a HUGE dump of snow in the mountains at 1 PM today (Wednesday). _________________________ I try never to get too excited about a storm when it is more than 120 hr out....and certainly never to discuss in this blog. But we are close enough now to talk about the possibility of a fairly major blow on Friday night and Saturday morning. This morning's run of the National Weather Service's GFS model is, how do I say it? Provocative. It forecasts a 966 hPa low pressure center to be off the northern tip of Vancouver Island, with an INTENSE pressure gradient (pressure change divided by distance) to the west and southwest.  That kind of pressure gradient would be associated with very strong winds (50-70 mph at least) plus big waves.  And we don't get 960 hPa low centers just offshore very often.  They usually stay in the Gulf of Alaska.   Listen on Google Podcasts Or you can listen to it here: Click the play button to listen or use your favorit

 That time has come again.    The time when our lakes occasionally appear to boil with tendrils of vapor reaching skyward.   Surreal, but beautiful.  Northwest steam fog season is here. .    Listen on Google Podcasts Or you can listen to it here: Click the play button to listen or use your favorite streaming service My blog on KNKX and the Undermining of American Freedom is found  style="color: #888888; text-decoration-line: none;">here .