Posts

Marine Air Pushes into Western Washington

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 An hour ago,  I felt it.     The winds picked up and the accompanying air was cooler and moister.  My wind chimes started to sound. After a second day with highs around 80F, it was clear that tomorrow would be cooler.   An offshore push or marine push had begun. Not a particularly strong one, but enough to bring down the high temperatures tomorrow by  5-10F within the interior of western Washington and northwest Oregon. The visible satellite image late this afternoon showed a tongue of low clouds moving up the Oregon and SW Washington coasts, a sign of the changes to come. Whether we have warm, dry offshore-directed flow or cooler onshore flow is all about pressure . The low-level winds tend to flow from high to low pressure. Friday afternoon at 5 PM the pressure pattern was favorable for warmth, with an area of low pressure, the thermal trough, along the coastal zones of Oregon and Washington (see below, lines of constant pressure...isobars...are shown by the solid lines, color shadi

The Seattle Parks Department Threatens To Reduce Service Due to COVID: Where is the Science?

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A recent tweet by the Seattle Park department combines anti-science and intimidation, going so far as to threaten a reduction of park access to the residents of Seattle. And if you are interested in equity for all of Seattle's residents, the Seattle Parks Department has other views. Their tweet is below .   Parks staff will be "collecting data" in the parks this weekend to determine whether "limits" will be needed in the near future.      The threat is clear:  if the parks are crowded this weekend expect a reduction in the availability of parking lots and reduced park hours.   With perfect conditions this weekend, the parks will be very busy. >here , >here ), the overwhelming scientific evidence is that outdoor air is very, very safe .   In fact, several more papers have come out in recent weeks that underline the safety of outdoor air, such as >example here ). It has become very clear that the key mode of transmission of COVID-19 is small particles

The Origin of Northwest Heatwaves and a Toasty Weekend Forecast

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 Everyone is talking about the warmth.    Yesterday, high temperatures around Puget ranged from around 60F near the water to 80F in the lower Cascade foothills (see below, click to enlarge).  Today---add another 3-6F.    So low 80sF are pretty much guaranteed at some locations. Around the region, temperatures were in the 70s around the Columbia Basin but fairly warm along the coast, the result of easterly flow keeping the cool ocean air at bay, while cooler air pushed into eastern Washington and Oregon. My podcast today will provide a detailed forecast for the region and then explain the mysteries of Northwest heatwaves.   What allows temperatures to soar 15-30F above normal?     What is the ominously sounding "thermal thought."  These and other "hot topics" will be discussed in my podcast! Here is my podcast: Click the play button to listen or use your favorite streaming service (see below) You can stream my podcast from your favorite services:   Listen on Apple P

The Infrastructure Problems of the National Weather Service

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  This is a lot of talk about the new infrastructure bill that is being considered in Congress. Supporters of U.S. weather prediction and the National Weather Service need to get organized since th e National Weather Service has profound infrastructure problems that need attention.  Serious enough that it is holding back the quality and reliability of weather information that is being provided to the American people. Let me tell you about a few of them. U.S. weather radars  The current U.S. radar network was installed in the late 1980s and early 1990s and applies the radar technology of forty years ago, with some minor upgrades (dual polarization).  Furthermore, the radar network has major gaps in coverage including the Oregon coast, eastern Oregon, and large portions of eastern Washington (see map).    Amazingly, the National Weather Service has no process in place to replace that current radar network (called NEXRAD or WSR-88D) and has given no priority to filling the radar gaps.  A

Heat Wave!

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 Find your sunglasses.  Stock up on sunscreen.  And get your shorts and tee shirts out.  You will need them.    A Northwest spring heatwave is about to begin.   The start to spring has been chilly and damp, but that will be a distant memory by this week.   Consider the latest ensemble forecast (running the model many times, each a bit different) for the NOAA/NWS GFS forecast system (see below). Steadily rising temperatures from the low 60s today to the mid-70s on Saturday and Sunday. The ensemble members are all very similar, which means we should have confidence in the prediction.   I know your next question.  What about the highly skillful European Center forecasts?  Here they are (below).  Highs of 74 and 73 on Saturday and Sunday, followed by a cool down next week. What do we owe this turn to torrid conditions?    A very high amplitude upper-level ridge of high pressure over the eastern Pacific.   The forecast of upper-level (500 hPa, around 18,000 ft) conditions at 5 PM Wednesday,

Frosty Morning and an Extraordinary Land Breeze

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Much of the state experienced a hard freeze last night, a combination of unusually cold air and clear skies, which allowed the earth to radiate heat to space.  Plus, generally light winds that lessened the mixing of warmer air down to the surface. As a result of these ideally chilly conditions, a number of daily minimum temperature records were broken on both sides of the state .   A map of the minimum temperatures last night (Saturday night/ Sunday morning) shows teens over NE Washington (and a 9F over northern Idaho), with low 30s and 20s across western Washington.   Note the cold temperatures along the Washington coast....we will get back to that in a second!   Proximity to water has a major impact on temperatures, something illustrated by a close look at Seattle and vicinity low temperatures last night (see below).  Temperatures only dropped into the mid-30s near Puget Sound or Lake Washington, but dropped to the mid-20s over the eastern suburbs of Seattle.  Classic in these situa

New Podcast. Frost to heat this week, plus an in-depth look at the effects of the weakening La Nina.

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 A strong front is approaching the Washington coast as I write this, with well-below normal temperatures behind it.    The revenge of La Nina. Rain will spread across the region later today with strong winds buffeting western Washington and the Cascades. Forecast of sea level pressure and low-level temperatures at 8 PM tonight (Friday).  Blue is cold air and the blue line indicates the frontal location The air behind the front will be unusually cool for this time of the year, dropping snow levels below 1000 ft.  6-12 inches of snow in the Cascades on Friday night and Saturday morning. Expect frost on Sunday morning. But then everything shifts, with a veritable heatwave later this week. My podcast (see below) will describe the details of this stunning change in our weather, plus a more in-depth examination of the effects of the collapsing La Nina in the tropical Pacific. Here is my podcast: Click the play button to listen or use your favorite streaming service (see below) You can stream