Wetand News

 California has experienced a very dry year, with the precipitation since January 1st well below normal in most of the state, with particularly dry conditions in the northern portion where several of the big reservoirs are located. Some areas are down as much as 15-20 inches! And not surprisingly the reservoirs are generally quite low right now,  with a number down to roughly 35-40% of normal (see below).   Not good. Making the situation more worrisome, a La Nina is a near certainty for this winter, which generally produces drier than normal conditions over central and southern CA. But sometimes the atmosphere does not follow persistence or the expected playbook , and at least for the next week, the northern part of the Golden State is going to be hit hard with rain.  It may be called the Sodden State. To give you some insight into this situation, below is the latest ensemble forecast from the highly skillful European Center modeling system fortotal precipitation over the western U.S.

 I have been watching this storm for a while, and I am now certain enough to tell you about it. A powerful, unusually deep storm will develop off the Northwest coast on Thursday. A mid-latitude cyclone that began as a tropical storm ( Namtheun), now over the western Pacific. Below is the 96-hour forecast valid at 5 AM Thursday (PDT) of sea level pressure from the U.S. NOAA/GFS model.   The solid lines are isobars (lines of constant sea level pressure). Amazing...the storm, located due west of our coast, has a central pressure is 952 hPa, which is very, very low for a mid-latitude cyclone at our latitude.    This storm is deeper (lower pressure) than the extreme Columbus Day storm of October 12, 1962--the greatest storm to hit the Northwest in 100 years or more. The highly skillful European Center forecast at the same time (see below) is virtually the same, providing confidence in this prediction. The simulated satellite image near the time of greatest strength is impressive, with front

This week marked the anniversary of the great Columbus Day Storm, which occurred on October 12, 1962. Probably the most powerful non-tropical storm to hit the lower-48 states in 100 years. Unpredicted the day before , the Columbus Day Storm brought gusts above 100 mph across the region, and the storm had a remarkable origin. I provide the fascinating details about the storm in my podcast (see below) But there is more.  My podcast begins with the latest weather forecast....and it is a mixed bag...with heavy rainfall over the Olympics and North Cascades over the weekend, and a strong front moving through Sunday morning.  Saturday will be the better day. You can listen to the podcast below or through your favorite podcast server. Some major podcast servers:     Like the podcast? Support on Patreon  Become a Patron!

 Fall so far has been much cooler and snowier than normal in the Northwest. To "warm-up"  this discussion, take a look at the snow coverage at Crystal Mountain and at Mt. Baker Ski resort--enough to motivate a search for the hot chocolate mix. A more quantitative view is provided by the NOAA snowpack analysis today (actually the snow-water-equivalent--the amount of water in the snowpack), compared against the last year (see below).  A lot more snow this year! The temperature departure from normal over the past two weeks is chilling:  western Washington and Oregon have been much cooler than normal (by 3-6F).  So have much of the West. And plotting the temperature at Sea-Tac versus the normal highs and lows over the past two weeks is startling:  Only ONE day had a high temperature reaching the normal values and MANY days had low temps plunging well below the normal lows: Yesterday morning, a number of western Washington stations dropped to freezing and below, and some low-tempe

A significant solar event is occurring and an aurora is visible to the north over northern Washington State right now. Here is a recent image from Greg Johnson's Skunk Bay Weather website: And the latest NOAA Space Weather Aurora forecast for 11:30 PM shows the core of it just north of us. NOAA's Space Weather Center had put out a geomagnetic solar storm watch, which has clearly verified.  Over the weekend a coronal mass ejection (CME)...or solar flare... erupted on the sun's surface and raced towards the earth.  The interactions of this ejection from the sun and the Earth's magnetic field resulted in the aurora, which was visible over the northern U.S. and Canada. A measure of the amplitude of the solar event is the Kp index, which has reached a fairly high level of 6: Do you want a real treat?  Here is a video of the aurora action from Skunk Bay: The skies are generally clear over Washington and southern BC, so we are in a good situation to view the celestial show. A

Imagine the ability to determine the three-dimensional distribution of wildfire smoke across the United States in real-time. We can see the spatial distribution of smoke from space but lack the detailed  three-dimensional structure Such a capability--let's call it smoke radar -- would improve weather prediction, because smoke influences temperature and clouds.   A smoke radar would help protect human health by assisting in the prediction of the future distribution of smoke near the surface.  Air quality forecasting would be improved.   Smoke radar could enhance aircraft safety   And a smoke radar would be a potent tool for research, from diffusion studies to climate change. Best of all, the National Weather Service already has the hardware in place, but simply needs to find the funds to collect the data.   And for a modest additional investment , the current units could be upgraded to dramatically improve their capabilities. The Opportunity The National Weather Service and the Fede

Everyone cares about moisture in the atmosphere, which controls our comfort and much more.   Often we call this humidity. On TV and the media, there are two measures of humidity that are frequently provided:  relative humidity and dew point. They are very different parameters and in my Podcast, I tell you exactly what they are and how you can use them.  Plus, the weekend forecast. Listen here or through your favorite podcast server And talking of moisture in the atmosphere, have you ever noticed that when the sky is full of cumulus clouds, the base of the clouds is often flat, while the tops are irregular and corrugated?  Here is a picture I took on Wednesday.   And here is another.   Why is this strange situation occurring over and over again?  Why are such cloud bases flat? Let me explain! Clouds, like the cumulus clouds shown above, are associated with rising air. This air starts with a certain amount of moisture but is not saturated--the relative humidity is less than 100% (check