Posts

Is the Northwest Experiencing and Threatened by False Spring?

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During the past week, several Seattle Times articles have been headlining that western Washington is experiencing a "false spring." Seattle Near Noon Today The Times further states that "  The Seattle area is known for what some locals call “false spring,” which occurs every year sometime in February or March. The weather is so lovely we mistakenly think winter is over. And then it starts to rain again." Furthermore, some environmental groups are warning that false spring is threatening wildlife and that false springs are the result of climate change (global warming). So for those of you worried about the "false spring" threat , let me note that Seattle is NOT known for false springs, that we have some of the longest springs in the nation, and there is NO evidence that a warming planet is producing more "false spring" warm-ups in our region. Spring 101 Everyone knows that astronomical spring runs from roughly March 21-June 21st.   But meteorolog

The New All-Time Maximum Temperature Record for Washington State. And the Latest Forecast

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This week, an experienced group of meteorologists released their report on the June 2021 heatwave and declared that Washington State has a new all-time temperature record of 120F, observed in the Hanford Reach of eastern Washington (see an image of the observing site below). The Hanford 100F site.  The record holder for Washington State This broke the previous record of 118F.   My podcast (which you can access below or through your favorite podcast service) describes the process of confirming this extreme temperature and tells you why the Hanford region is particularly favored for summer extreme heat. And then there is the weather forecast.   My podcast reviews the wonderful weekend ahead, with full sun and temperatures in the mid-50s on Saturday.   Some high clouds on Sunday, and rain Monday morning.   I also look ahead for the remainder of February. To listen to my podcast,  use the link below or access it through your favorite podcast service. Some major podcast servers:     Like th

Perspective On A Dry February

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 The last several weeks have been drier than normal over the West Coast, and based on the latest forecasts, February will almost certainly come in below normal over the western U.S.  This after an extraordinarily wet autumn and early winter. In this blog, I would like to provide some perspective on this dry month and take a look at some of the updated model runs for the remainder of February A plot of the precipitation anomaly from normal for the past two weeks shows the issue:  below-normal precipitation from the Bay Area through Washington State, with some locations 1.5 to 4 inches below normal.  SeaTac has only received .21 inches this month, 1.12 inches below normal. February is funny month for precipitation in the region, something shown by the plot of February precipitation at SeaTac over the the past 70 years (see below). HUGE variations from around 9 inches to about a third of an inch! Large year-to-year variability, with the average amount (3.76 inches) the result of averagin

Climate Hype Leads to Climate Anxiety and Undermines Constructive Efforts

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Tremendous damage is being done by media, activists, and some politicians by hyping climate change (global warming).  Such climate exaggeration is damaging the mental state of millions of people and undermining our ability to deal with climate change.  It leads to poor adaptation to the moderate impacts of global warming or taking realistic steps that can be highly protective. The front page of the Seattle Times yesterday contained a story (reprinted from the NY Times) about the rapid growth in climate change anxiety and the burgeoning industry providing therapy to those in desperation and pain. There are hundreds of articles in major media on the rapid increase of "climate grief."  And a recent article in the medical journal, The Lancet,  surveyed 10 000 children and young people (aged 16–25 years) in ten countries, finding that  59% were very or extremely worried and 84% were at least moderately worried.   More than 50% reported feeling sad, anxious, angry, powerless, helpl

The Revenge of the Ridge: An Arid First Half of Feburary

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 The last few weeks have been much drier than normal in the Northwest....and the reason is clear.  A very persistent ridge located along the West Coast or just offshore. This image below shows the difference (over the past month) from normal of the heights of the 500 hPa pressure surface --you can think of this as the difference of the pressure at 18,000 ft from normal for the last 30 days.  The dark red indicates pressures were MUCH higher than normal off our coast.  In weather vernacular, there was a major ridge offshore. On the eastern side of ridges there is generally sinking air and dry conditions.  That is where we have been. The last week?  Essentially the same pattern (see below).    One thing you will immediately notice is the wave-like nature of the atmosphere .  There is a ridge of high pressure offshore, but a trough over the central US, and a ridge over the West Coast.    This is called an amplified wave pattern. What about the future?   Let's look at the best of the

Freezing Rain--Why and Where Does It Occur? And A Dry Week Ahead for the Northwest.

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  The headlines today talk about the threat of freezing rain along the East Coast. But the Pacific Northwest is no slacker in the freezing rain department!  We have world-class freezing rain in the Columbia Gorge, Northwest Washington around Whatcom County, and particularly in the Columbia Basin of eastern Washington. As noted in my previous blog, freezing fog is often experienced in the Columbia Basin as well.   A map of freezing rain frequency across the U.S. shows that eastern Washington is a major player (below).  The eastern U.S. get freezing rain when fronts are positioned over the Northeast or Midwest, with cold air to the north.  This is the situation occurring today. My podcast today describes how and why freezing rain exists.....and describes the weird situation of liquid water occurring under subfreezing temperatures. And my podcast also describes the uber-dry conditions of the next week...and even the potential for some sun! To listen to my podcast,  use the link below or a

January Was No Month for Vacation in the Columbia Basin

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Cold, with temperatures generally remaining below freezing. Cloudy almost all the time, with very little sunshine Icy, with freezing fog on many days. Some location in the interior of Alaska?    Siberia? No, the Columbia Basin of Eastern Washington. Day after day, cold air and associated low clouds pooled in the Columbia Basin (see imagery below on January 28th) WSDOT highway cams show fog and low clouds nearly every day (see an example for January 14th below) With the unending veil of clouds, the temperature stayed nearly constant and cold--close to freezing for extended periods. Below is something amazing...and disturbing.  The temperatures at Patterson in Benton County.  For more than half the month, temperatures were between 30 and 35, with many days showing almost no diurnal (daily) variations.   Just constant murk, cold, and freezing fog.  Very unpleasant.  I would take 20F and blue skies any day over that. Even more depressing is the solar radiation measurement, with many days r