Wetand News

Last week we witnessed a major failure in science communication regarding the Northwest heatwave. A failure that misinformed you and millions of others, and a failure that highlighted glaring weaknesses in the media's ability to cover important scientific issues.  And it revealed the disappointing behavior of some members of the scientific community. >recent blogs describe the situation in detail. Within a week, an international group of scientists, policy researchers, and others rushed to create and distribute an attribution analysis of the heatwave.  A study trumpeting an extreme claim in the first sentence of the report: " Based on observations and modeling, the occurrence of a heatwave with maximum temperatures as observed in the area was virtually impossible without human-caused climate change" As I will show below and previously demonstrated in my recent blogs, this claim is not supported in the document or by the rigorous science, and, in fact, the materi

Synopsis Society needs accurate information in order to make crucial environmental decisions. Unfortunately, there has been a substantial amount of miscommunication and unscientific handwaving about the recent Northwest heatwave, and this blog post uses rigorous science to set the record straight. First, the specific ingredients that led to the heatwave are discussed, including a high-amplitude ridge of high pressure and an approaching low-pressure area that “supercharged” the warming. Second, it is shown that global warming only contributed a small about (1-2F) of the 30-40F heatwave and that proposed global warming amplification mechanisms (e.g., droughts, enhanced ridging/high pressure) cannot explain the severe heat event. It is shown that high-resolution climate models do not produce more extreme high temperatures under the modest global warming of the past several decades and that global warming may even work against extreme warming in our region. Importantly, this blog demon

There is a lot of talk about the short-term European heatwave with some suggesting that the record-breaking warmth is the result of climate change/global warming.     Some of the media and climate advocates have been over the top in their claims (see below), stating that this event was the result of human-caused global warming. The truth and overwhelming scientific evidence provide a different story:  t he recent European heatwave is mainly the result of natural processes but was enhanced modestly by human-caused global warming.      The situation is very much like the Northwest heatwave of last summer;  with many of the same elements.   A Short But Dramatic Heat Event As noted in the media, a number of locations broke all-time temperatures records, with some locations in England reaching 40°C  (104°F).   The map below shows the locations breaking records on July 18th, with the x's showing locations exceeding all-time record highs. At some locations, the previous all-time record h

This Wedneday, October 12, marks the 60th anniversary of the extraordinary Columbus Day Storm, the most intense, damaging storm to hit the Pacific Northwest during the last century. This blog will tell its story,  describe the extreme winds and damage, tell you about the quality of the forecasts, and even examine whether global warming will change the frequency of such storms.   Note: I will be giving an online public talk on the big blow if you are interested (details later). The steeple of Campbell Hall in Monmouth, Oregon The extreme nature of the storm is hard to exaggerate. It spread destruction from northern California to British Columbia, with winds exceeding 100 mph in many locations and over 130 mph in several locations. It was a storm equivalent in strength to a category 3 hurricane.  But bigger. 46 people died and 317 required hospitalization. Power was taken out for nearly the whole region.  Millions of trees were toppled. Flooding occurred in California.  If it hit today,