U.S. Operational Weather Prediction is Crippled By Inadequate Computer Resources
U.S. global numerical weather prediction has now fallen into fourth place, with national and regional prediction capabilities a shadow of what they could be.
There are several reasons for these lagging numerical weather prediction capabilities, including lack of strategic planning, inadequate cooperation between the research and operational communities, and too many sub-optimal prediction efforts.
But there is another reason of equal importance: a profound lack of computer resources dedicated to numerical weather prediction, both for operations and research.
There are several reasons for these lagging numerical weather prediction capabilities, including lack of strategic planning, inadequate cooperation between the research and operational communities, and too many sub-optimal prediction efforts.
But there is another reason of equal importance: a profound lack of computer resources dedicated to numerical weather prediction, both for operations and research.
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(2) NOAA/NWS must develop a detailed strategic plan that not only makes the case for more computer resources, but demonstrates how such resources will improve weather prediction. Amazingly, they have never done this. In fact, NOAA/NWS does not even have a document describing in detail the computer resources they have now (I know, I asked a number of NOAA/NWS managers for it--they admitted to me it doesn't exist).
(3) With such a plan Congress should invest in the kind of computer resources that would enable U.S. weather prediction to become first rate. Ten times the computer resources (costing about 100 million dollars) would bring us up to parity, 100 times would allow us to be state of the science (including such things as running global models at convection-permitting resolution, something I have been working on in my research).
Keep in mind that a new weather prediction computer system would be no more expensive that a single, high tech jet fighter. Which do you think would provide more benefit to U.S. citizens? And remember, excellent weather prediction is the first line of defense from severe weather that might be produced by global warming.
(4) Future computer resources should divided between high-demand operational forecasting, which requires dedicated large machines, and less time-sensitive research/development runs, which could make use of cloud computing. Thus, future NOAA computer resources will be a hybrid.
(5) Current operational numerical prediction in the National Weather Service has been completed at the NCEP Central Operations Center. This center has not been effective, has unnecessarily slowed the transition to operations of important changes, and must be reorganized or replaced with more facile, responsive entity.
U.S. citizens can enjoy far better weather forecasts, saving many lives and tens of billions of dollars per year. But to do so will require that NOAA/NWS secure vastly increased computer resources, and reorganize weather model development and operations to take advantage of them.
(2) NOAA/NWS must develop a detailed strategic plan that not only makes the case for more computer resources, but demonstrates how such resources will improve weather prediction. Amazingly, they have never done this. In fact, NOAA/NWS does not even have a document describing in detail the computer resources they have now (I know, I asked a number of NOAA/NWS managers for it--they admitted to me it doesn't exist).
(3) With such a plan Congress should invest in the kind of computer resources that would enable U.S. weather prediction to become first rate. Ten times the computer resources (costing about 100 million dollars) would bring us up to parity, 100 times would allow us to be state of the science (including such things as running global models at convection-permitting resolution, something I have been working on in my research).
Keep in mind that a new weather prediction computer system would be no more expensive that a single, high tech jet fighter. Which do you think would provide more benefit to U.S. citizens? And remember, excellent weather prediction is the first line of defense from severe weather that might be produced by global warming.
82 million dollars a piece
(4) Future computer resources should divided between high-demand operational forecasting, which requires dedicated large machines, and less time-sensitive research/development runs, which could make use of cloud computing. Thus, future NOAA computer resources will be a hybrid.
(5) Current operational numerical prediction in the National Weather Service has been completed at the NCEP Central Operations Center. This center has not been effective, has unnecessarily slowed the transition to operations of important changes, and must be reorganized or replaced with more facile, responsive entity.
U.S. citizens can enjoy far better weather forecasts, saving many lives and tens of billions of dollars per year. But to do so will require that NOAA/NWS secure vastly increased computer resources, and reorganize weather model development and operations to take advantage of them.
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