The Upcoming Wildfire Season: Near Normal Conditions Should Prevail
With all the challenges we have dealt with during the past months, there does appear to be some good news on one front: there is no reason at this point to expect an unusual wildfire season over Washington State this summer.
As shown by this plot of the average number of wildfires over time in our region, we are now entering the period of typical rapid growth in the number of wildfire events (blue line shows today), with the peak in August. There are currently no wildfires burning in our region.
And the situation looking forward is quite favorable in most aspects.
During the past 30 days, Washington State has been wetter than normal and the eastern quarter MUCH wetter than normal (see below). This is very important, because the surface fuels and upper soil layers are being wet down immediately before the fire season.
The National Interagency fire danger forecast for today shows low (dark green) risk.
The forecast of accumulated precipitation over the next week is quite wet (see below), with some of our mountain regions receiving 2-5 inches. Bad for wildfires and a damper on outdoor recreation.
The most accurate extended forecast is from the European Center and its 46 day forecast (through 24 July) is quite favorable, with much wetter than normal conditions from the Cascade crest westward, wetter than normal over northern Oregon and the eastern extreme of Washington and northern Idaho, and near normal conditions over the Columbia Basin (which receives very little precipitation this time of the year in any case).
The European Center also runs a seasonal forecasting system, which is predicting normal precipitation over the region in July and August (see below).
I could show you many more graphics and forecasts, but the bottom line is clear: wildfire fire risk is currently very low over Washington State and there is no reason to expect the risk will be higher than normal this summer, something claimed in certain media (see below).
Some media is taking it up a notch, even bringing COVID-19 into the mix:
Will there be wildfires this summer?
There certainly will be and we must be prepared, as Washington DNR and others are doing. And they will have to deal with the fires, while protecting firefighters from COVID-19.
But there is no reason to expect more wildfires than normal, and perhaps some expectation of a more benign season with all the rain. Since at least half of our regional wildfires are human-initiated, what will be the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in reducing the number of people traveling around the State and interacting with our wildlands? Will more people being at home increase or decrease fire initiation?
As shown by this plot of the average number of wildfires over time in our region, we are now entering the period of typical rapid growth in the number of wildfire events (blue line shows today), with the peak in August. There are currently no wildfires burning in our region.
And the situation looking forward is quite favorable in most aspects.
During the past 30 days, Washington State has been wetter than normal and the eastern quarter MUCH wetter than normal (see below). This is very important, because the surface fuels and upper soil layers are being wet down immediately before the fire season.
The National Interagency fire danger forecast for today shows low (dark green) risk.
The forecast of accumulated precipitation over the next week is quite wet (see below), with some of our mountain regions receiving 2-5 inches. Bad for wildfires and a damper on outdoor recreation.
The most accurate extended forecast is from the European Center and its 46 day forecast (through 24 July) is quite favorable, with much wetter than normal conditions from the Cascade crest westward, wetter than normal over northern Oregon and the eastern extreme of Washington and northern Idaho, and near normal conditions over the Columbia Basin (which receives very little precipitation this time of the year in any case).
The European Center also runs a seasonal forecasting system, which is predicting normal precipitation over the region in July and August (see below).
I could show you many more graphics and forecasts, but the bottom line is clear: wildfire fire risk is currently very low over Washington State and there is no reason to expect the risk will be higher than normal this summer, something claimed in certain media (see below).
Some media is taking it up a notch, even bringing COVID-19 into the mix:
Will there be wildfires this summer?
There certainly will be and we must be prepared, as Washington DNR and others are doing. And they will have to deal with the fires, while protecting firefighters from COVID-19.
But there is no reason to expect more wildfires than normal, and perhaps some expectation of a more benign season with all the rain. Since at least half of our regional wildfires are human-initiated, what will be the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in reducing the number of people traveling around the State and interacting with our wildlands? Will more people being at home increase or decrease fire initiation?
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