Wetand News

 The ancient Romans believed that rainfall was controlled by the great god Jupiter....or to be more exact, one of the aspects of the deity, Jupiter Pluvius . Even in modern times, some folks would suggest that drought was associated with sleeping god: And did you know that a town in the very wet southwest corner of Washington State is known as Pluvius?   I need to visit that place. Jupiter Pluvius appears to have taken up resident over our region....and is not leaving very soon. Over the last two months, much of the Northwest and northern California has had above normal precipitation (see map below, greens, blues, purple), with large portions of central/northern California receiving more than 400% of normal precipitation. Jupiter's bounty has ended the fire season in much of the western U.S., restored soil moisture, and began the processes of refilling the region's reservoirs. And Jupiter was thoughtful of the other gods, allowing near-perfect conditions for Halloween. But Jupi

Atmospheric rivers bring plumes of moisture to the West Coast and often heavy precipitation. But why do atmospheric rivers exist?  What conditions create them?     All is revealed in my latest podcast (see below). Like the podcast? Support on Patreon  Become a Patron! ________________________________ An Important Message for Seattle Voters > In the next election, Seattle has a decision between two paths.  (click on link) _____________________________________________ The Second Edition of My Northwest Weather Book is Now Available! My new book is greatly improved and expanded over the first edition, with new chapters on the meteorology of Northwest wildfires and the weather of British Columbia.  A completely revamped chapter on the effects of global warming on our region.  And it has been brought up to date with recent weather events and the imagery is improved greatly.   Where can you get it? Local bookstores, such as the  University of Washington bookstore .  The UW Bookstore has

Today was a very wet day over Washington State and southern British Columbia. And you can blame a river...an atmospheric river of moisture streaming out of the subtropics for most of the wet action. A model forecast of the amount of water vapor in a vertical column of air, valid at 8AM this morning, shows a "juicy" plume heading right into the Northwest. A satellite view shows the plume of moisture (highlighted by the white oval), as well as its origins in the tropical Pacific.  The air of the very warm western tropical Pacific is particularly laden with water vapor. And the visible satellite image this afternoon shows a plume of clouds associated with the moisture river.   A front is found at the southern edge of the cloud mass....the brighter white clouds indicated by the red arrow. When the atmospheric river hits our mountains, it is forced to rise, releasing massive amounts of precipitation.  The UW model total precipitation forecast for the 24h ending 5 AM tomorrow morni

During the dry years, the people forgot about the rich years, and when the wet years returned, they lost all memory of the dry years. It was always that way. ---John Steinbeck, East of Eden ___________________________________________________________ After the heavy rains of the past few days over central and northern California, a number of media outlets are talking about California suffering from "Weather Whiplash", since the record precipitation this autumn follows a year of drier than normal conditions. And several media outlets are going much further, claiming the the "whiplash" is the result of climate change and is worsening over time (see below).  Such articles quote from scientists whose research suggested increasing whiplash based on their examination of climate model projections. Well, what is the truth? Global warming has been significant for several decades so we should see evidence of increasing "whiplash" if climate change is a major forci

This morning, the offshore storm rapidly intensified and a chieved record status, with the central pressure dropping to at least 943 hPa (the previous record for our region was 950 hPa). And there is a very good chance it is even deeper right now.   Here is the latest visible satellite image of the storm (around 10 AM).   Stunningly beautiful creature , with the frontal clouds swirling towards the low center.  And you can see very unstable air with lots of convection (e.g., thunderstorms) over the southwest portions (the popcorn-looking clouds).  Some of that activity will reach us later today. The official National Weather Service analysis indicated 943 hPa at 8AM (see sea level pressure map below) The low center is now passing nearly directly over NOAA buoy 46005 (see map), about 300 nautical miles off the coast. Below is the plot of sea level pressure at the buoy as of 11 AM.  Wow.  The pressure is down to 942.5 hPa a nd still dropping rapidly.  The winds are nearly calm there, as

The models have converged to a consistent solution, the storm is beginning to "bomb", and I can now provide a forecast with some confidence. This will be the strongest Northwest storm on record, but its strength will collapse as it approaches the coast of Vancouver Island.  More quickly than any storm in my experience. And there will be strong winds over land, but not from the south, but from the east, as air is pulled westward by the immense, powerful storm offshore. Let me begin by showing you the latest water vapor satellite image over the eastern Pacific (below), with the dark areas indicating dry conditions. This is a very potent storm, with massive clouds and extreme darkening, which indicates strong sinking behind the low center (you can see the moisture curling up).  Such sinking is a sign of vigor. Both the American (GFS) and European Center (ECMWF) models indicate very rapid intensification over the next 24h, with the storm catching down to around 943 hPa (see below

 My new podcast is out (see below) and in it I describe the hurricane-force storms that can hit Northwest and provide an update on the extraordinary Sunday/Monday event. And I have to admit something:  meteorologists are not exactly sure where the big storm will make landfall. However, the formation of an unprecedented storm is nearly a sure thing, with the very latest forecasts of sea level pressure for Sunday morning from both the U.S. and European models predicteing the strongest Northwest storm in history with pressures below 945 hPa (see below).  Just crazy.  Equivalent to a category three hurricane. Like the podcast? Support on Patreon  Become a Patron! ________________________________ An Important Message for Seattle Voters > In the next election, Seattle has a decision between two paths.  (click on link) _____________________________________________ The Second Edition of My Northwest Weather Book is Now Available! My new book is greatly improved and expanded over the first

(Note:  I will have a new blog and podcast by 1 PM...waiting on new model guidance for the storm) ________________________________________ On Sunday, the most powerful storm in Northwest history, with the lowest central pressure ever observed in our region, will approach our coast. There are still uncertainties with its track...as well as its impacts on the region. But there is now little doubt that an extraordinary event is in store, as unusual as the June heatwave. This blog will fill you in on the details. The Current Offshore Storm The offshore storm today was one of the strongest on record, with the sea level pressure in its center dropping to around 951 hPa-- in the range of a category three hurricane. I have studied such intense midlatitude cyclones (low-pressure areas) for years, and the lowest central pressure in the historical record off our coast is 950 hPa. The satellite image this morning shows an impressive storm, with clouds swirling into the low center. And a fron

 The next 24 hours are going to be meteorologically exciting as a powerful storm grows rapidly offshore. And before I say more, let me make clear that the inland areas of the Northwest will NOT get a major blow from this.   Along the coast and particularly along the coast of Vancouver Island, this will be a significant event. But this storm is remarkable for several reasons and thus is worthy of description.  And is predicted to be a bomb cyclone, in which the central pressure lowers by more than 24 hPa in 24 h.  The latest NOAA/GFS forecast for sea level pressure at 5 AM tomorrow morning, shows a deep low off our coast, with a central pressure of 956 hPa.   A very, very deep storm for our latitudes, and lower than some category 1 and 2 hurricanes.  If this storm had been shifted a few hundred miles eastward, the damage would have been terrible.   But it will not do this:   model solutions have converged, with little chance of an inland path. The wind forecast for 5 PM tomorrow shows g