The Mountain Snow Season Gets A Good Start...And The Tuesday Storm Fizzles Out

As predicted, the cold, unstable air streaming into our region has dropped substantial snow in the mountains.

Even at low levels ( 3000 ft),  Snoqualmie Pass received enough to cover the roadway.


The higher ( 5000 ft) Paradise Visitor Center is now snowbound and inaccessible.


While the real-time snow ruler at Stevens Pass (around 4000 ft) has roughly 10 inches.


The latest satellite picture shows an impressive array of cold, convective showers offshore, with the instability driven by cold air moving over relatively warm water.   Enough to warm the hearts of area skiers!  

Our temperatures have been running much below normal the past few days, with today only getting to around 45 F today.  These are mid-winter temps.


The latest regional high-resolution model run is in, predicting as much as 1 foot by Wednesday morning in the North Cascades and even more over the BC mountains (see accumulated snow graphic below).  A very good base to build upon for this season.



Whistler is planning on opening on November 25th and the latest webcam suggests they could be open for business today:


And even before this snow dump, our snowpack this morning is well above normal, something shown by the SNOTEL network (see below).  Much of the west is above 150% of normal, with the Olympics at over 800%!, , but keep in mind that so early in the season small amounts of snow can produce big percentage changes.


Finally, I have disappointing news for windstorm lovers.  The model forecasts have been shifting back and forth about the approaching offshore low, with some runs being very threatening.  But they have now converged and stabilized, indicating that only a strong trough of low pressure will approach our shores (see the forecast for 1 AM Tuesday below).  Winds will gust to 30-40 mph around western Washington on Tuesday morning, but we are almost used to that now.   Each day reduces the leaf coverage, lessening our vulnerability, and many weak branches have already been downed.

_____________________________

Announcement:

I will be doing a book signing and dinner event at Ivar's Salmon House in Seattle on Wednesday, November 17th (6 PM).  You can come just to purchase a book and get it personalized or you can stay for a special dinner, where I will be giving a weather talk.   More information on the event is found here.  You need to make reservations for the dinner (only 80 spaces available). And information about the new edition of my book is here.

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