Wetand News

I am disappointed.   It looks like clouds will make viewing of the meteor shower tonight impossible for most residents in Washington State. The lastest visible satellite image shows lots of clouds over the region.  But the real threats are the clouds stretching from the WA Cascade to the east.  High clouds that are moving westward over towards western WA.  There are lower clouds over NW Oregon...they will evaporate around sunset. The infrared satellite image, which accentuates high clouds (white) show the problematic cloud field clearly. The very latest NOAA/NWS HRRR forecast of clouds at 10 PM tonight (the time of max meteors) shows 100% clouds (blue colors) over much of Washington, but low cloud cover over parts of western Oregon.    Northwest Oregon is where you need to go if you are a serious meteor watcher.  And the further south you go, the earlier the sunset...another advantage! The latest forecast of the NOAA/NWS National Blend of Models provides a similar story (see below). So

  I am really looking forward to two events this week:   the potential for a meteor storm on Monday evening and the arrival of warmer than normal condition s on Tuesday and Wednesday. First, the meteors.   On Monday between 9:45 PM and 10:15 PM, the tau Herculid meteor shower will reach the earth.  There is considerable uncertainty on the number of meteors that will enter the earth's atmosphere, but it potentially could be a major event. The latest high-resolution weather model output suggests that it may be clear or nearly clear over much of the Northwest (see cloud forecast map  for 11 PM below) The other issue is moonlight and sunlight.  We will have a new moon....so no light there.  But there is an issue with sunlight .   Sunset is very late now (about 8:55 PM).   Civil Twilight ends around 9:36 PM--which is right before the meteor shower.  What does the end of civil twilight look like?  Here is the analog situation on May 18th for the sky at the start of the meteor shower: 

  My podcast today (see below to access it), will describe the active and varied weather that will strike the region this weekend.   But there is more:  I will talk about the history of Memorial Day Weekend weather and how it represents a transition time into June Gloom. A major feature this weekend is an unusually strong low-pressure center that will make landfall on the Oregon coast on Saturday afternoon (see below), with moderate rain extending over Oregon and powerful winds along the coast.   If you are vacationing in Oregon this weekend... sorry. Surface weather map at 11 AM Saturday. Precipitation will be bountiful over Oregon, as illustrated by the 48-h totals ending 5 AM Monday.  Oregon and northern Californa needs the moisture. Monday will be much better. My podcast also talks about the trends in Memorial Day Weekend weather.  Consider the precipitation at SeaTac Airport for the May 25-30th totals over the past 70 years. Not much of a trend, but it is clear that many such week

Several people have asked me about the threat of wildfires for our region  this summer .     I have good news for them:  the wet/cool spring and other factors make a major wildfire season in Washington State highly unlikely.  That means less low-level smoke and other impacts. Why are folks so nervous?   A major stimulus has been irresponsible media, such as the Seattle Times. For example, Seattle Times cartoonist David Horsey published a recent cartoon  showing Washington State on fire, with flames and smoke extending over the entire state  (see my rendition of his cartoon below). And ST's  David Horsey doesn't stop there in inducing fear: " That means another summer of wildfires. And that means smoke.. .. there’s a good chance of that perfect August weather in Western Washington being smothered in an acrid cover of smoke blowing in from fires to the north, the east and the south." As I will describe below, David Horsey and similar fearsters are ignoring science a

Thunder was heard all over the Northwest on Saturday, including many areas without a drop of rain. Take a look at the lightning strike map for Saturday. Quite a few lightning strokes over the western slopes of the Cascades and Rockies....and a number of boomers moved over southeast Washington.   Yesterday morning one could see the cumulus convection start to pop up over the Cascades, and by early afternoon (2 PM for the Seattle Panocam shown below) there was fairly deep convection (the meteorological term for cumulus clouds) with prominent cirrus anvils.   I was taking a walk with Steve Pool, the retired KOMO TV meteorologist  about this time ,  and we were admiring the huge cumulus over the mountains. The cumulonimbus producing the lightning had enough precipitation that the weather radar "lit up" over the region, something illustrated by the regional weather radar around 2 PM (see below).  Many of the showers formed initially over terrain and then drifted off. For example,

My new podcast is out. I start with a very favorable weekend forecast for most of the region, with warm, dry conditions over the lowlands of western and eastern Washington. Only the mountains may get some showers on Saturday. And then I take on the exaggerated claims of drought in eastern Washington. I start by referring to the climatological precipitation map of Washington, noting that much of the Columbia Basin is desert, with less than 10 inches a year.   Only with irrigation is agriculture possible and a small shortfall of precipitation is meaningless.   In the podcast, I review the favorable water situation that is now occurring and will be present throughout the summer for eastern Washington, with little negative impact expected on agriculture. Bottom line:  there is no drought in eastern Washington, by any relevant measure. To listen to my podcast, use the link below or access it through your favorite podcast service. Some major podcast servers:     Like the podcast? Support on