The Great Heat Wave Dilemma Explained, Plus the End of the Heat Wave in Sight.

My podcast today is all about heat waves.

Let's start with the great heat wave dilemma that is never properly explained in the media:

The Northwest is slowly warming from human-caused climate change but extreme heat waves are NOT increasing in our region.

How can that be?

First, let me prove it.

Here are the summer (July-August) temperatures over Washington State for the past fifty years.  An increase of about 2F over the period.

My podcast today is all about heat waves The Great Heat Wave Dilemma Explained, Plus the End of the Heat Wave in Sight.
Some of this could be natural or the result of urbanization/instrument changes, but much of most of it could well be from human-forced climate change.  

With warming over the period, the frequency of getting above some threshold like 80 or 90F is increasing.  The Seattle Times did a heat wave story a few days ago and showed this (see below from the ST).   As expected, in Seattle there are more days above 90F as we slowly warm.


But then the Seattle Times shows a plot of record daily temperatures in July for Seattle (see below)....and there is very little upward trend!   How could this be?

Just to check on the Seattle Times... I did the same thing for July and August over the past 50 years, plotting the warmest observed temperature at both SeaTac and  Pasco (see below). 

 Hardly any change in the extreme high temperatures each year at either site.  No long-term trend....and you would expect a trend if global warming was important for the extreme heat waves!

 

My podcast today is all about heat waves The Great Heat Wave Dilemma Explained, Plus the End of the Heat Wave in Sight.

My podcast today is all about heat waves The Great Heat Wave Dilemma Explained, Plus the End of the Heat Wave in Sight.

My podcast reveals the answer to this dilemma.   Natural variability...natural causes...dominate extreme heat waves, with global warming having only a very minor effect.   Extreme heat waves in our region can bring temperatures 30-40F above normal, and 1-2 F from global warming is in the noise level.

My podcast also talks about the big cool-down coming on Monday.  Yes, we will have to get through Saturday and Sunday, but on Monday a potent upper-level disturbance will come through and temperatures will drop into the 70s that day--with clouds and even some showers.

After that, no major heat wave is in sight!


To listen to my podcast, use the link below or access it through your favorite podcast service.


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 My podcast today is all about heat waves The Great Heat Wave Dilemma Explained, Plus the End of the Heat Wave in Sight. My podcast today is all about heat waves The Great Heat Wave Dilemma Explained, Plus the End of the Heat Wave in Sight.
Like the podcast? Support on Patreon 


My podcast today is all about heat waves The Great Heat Wave Dilemma Explained, Plus the End of the Heat Wave in Sight.

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