Record-Breaking Cold and Snow is Forecast by the Models. Can It Really Be True?

I have to tell you about this, even though some of the forecasts are crazy extreme.

For several forecast cycles, the models have suggested that later this weekend and next week record-breaking cold and snow hit the region.  

Yes, lowland snow.  

Let's start with the vaunted European Center model.  The totals for the next week (through Tuesday morning) are shown below.    A dusting over the lowlands and massive amounts (2-4 ft) in the mountains.


The American GFS model is similar with large mountain snows, but it also had a band of 1/2 feet over the south Sound.


And the U.S. GFS has even more lowland snow through Thursday.  Furthermore, the totals through mid-November are sheer madness, with nearly 2 feet over Seattle.  The American model has problems.


The accumulated snow over the next week by the UW model is also substantial over the mountains and has some lowland snow over western Washington.   Folks....we may be skiing by Thanksgiving.


As shown by the climatological snow graph below, getting any kind of lowland snow during the first two weeks of November is basically unprecedented.


Anyway, thought you should know.   I will keep watch on these forecasts since there is a lot of uncertainty for such extended predictions.

What you can depend upon are cooler-than-normal temperatures (including highs only getting up into the mid-40s) the next few days in the lowlands and bountiful mountain snow.

The origin?   A strong trough of low pressure along the coast (see upper-level --500 hPa pressure--map for tomorrow morning), with the blue and purple colors showing much lower than normal heights (or pressures) aloft.


 
And we are confident that a powerful atmospheric river will bring a plume of moisture to the coast on Friday, resulting in substantial rain and mountain snow (see the forecast of total atmospheric water vapor for Friday, below)


So don't worry about wildfires, drought, or lack of snowpack---we are now entering a period of massively cold, wet weather.   The yin and yang of the weather is quite evident.


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