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Showing posts from January, 2023

Is Freedom of Speech at Risk at the University of Washington?

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Freedom of speech is the essential foundation for a democratic society.  It is also a requirement for a functioning university.   Freedom of expression is particularly protected by the First Amendment of the U.S. Constitution for public entities such as universities. Disturbingly, a number of groups have noted serious problems regarding freedom of speech at the University of Washington.  Groups both inside and outside the institution. The Report of the Foundation for Individual Rights and Expression (FIRE) FIRE is a highly respected non-partisan group dedicated to protecting freedom of speech at U.S. colleges and universities.  Recently, it released a detailed report on freedom of speech at over 200 American colleges/universities, based on input from tens of thousands of students and faculty, as well as the review of materials from each institution. The University of Washington was the lowest-rated of any public university in the nation.    Let me repeat:  the UW was at the bottom of

Why Does High Pressure Produce Low Clouds in the Pacific Northwest. Plus, the Latest Forecast

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  My new podcast answers a question several have asked:   Why Does High Pressure Produce Low Clouds over the Northwest? Such a situation occurred this week, as illustrated by the satellite image on Tuesday afternoon below.  Puget Sound was socked in, as was the Willamette Valley.  Low clouds are also evident offshore. High pressure promotes low clouds in several ways...all explained in the podcast. My podcast also provides the weather forecast for this week:  a pretty benign situation. Most notable will be the cool morning temperatures as a modified arctic air mass is over the region.  The lows this morning were in the 20s for western Washington and in the teens and single digits over eastern Washington (see below for minima on Sunday morning). Even colder temperatures are expected tomorrow morning, followed by a slow warm-up on Tuesday through Thursday. To listen to my podcast, use the link below or access it through your favorite podcast service. Some major podcast servers:     Like

Near-Record High Atmospheric Pressure Followed by the Big Chill

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If you feel some pressure in your forehead today, there may be a cause. Right now, the Northwest is experiencing unusually high atmospheric pressure. In fact, the third highest pressure in the past 25 years, hitting around 1042 hPa, something shown by the plot of pressures at SeaTac below (the dashed red line shows the highest pressure observed yesterday). This uber-high pressure has been suppressing water levels, resulting in the high tides at Seattle being far less than would have occurred under normal pressure (see below, red is observed, blue is predicted) Later tonight and tomorrow morning, a front will move through, bringing some rain to the lowlands and snow to the mountains.   Nothing exceptional. And then the chilly fun starts on Saturday.  That morning, cold air (purple and blue colors) will start moving in from the Northeast. And by Sunday morning will have spread over the entire region. The cold air will bring high sea level pressure and large pressure differences that will

Cold and Some Lowland Snow Arriving This Weekend

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We have roughly another month remaining of meteorological winter, and mother nature will not be letting us transition to spring without another taste of cold and snow.  The cold is for sure, including a hard freeze over the region. The snow forecast is less confident--but it does look like either the Washington or Oregon western lowlands will see the flakes--the question is which one. The movement of cold air into the Northwest has another implication:  substantial additional precipitation for a sodden California. The Cold For Wednesday and Thursday, a high-pressure ridge will dominate the region, producing cool, cloudy, but generally dry conditions (see upper level--500 hPa pressure level--map for Wednesday morning below).   A benefit of the high pressure will be a suppression of the astronomical King Tides, minimizing flooding and tidal overflows. But on Friday and Saturday, an upper-level trough will move south down the eastern flanks of the big ridge, pulling cold air from northern

Atmospheric Pressure Explains a Wimpy King Tide Plus Cold Air Ahead

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 In my podcast today, I spend the second segment talking in depth about atmospheric pressure.  That information is particularly important this week:  A very large astronomical King Tide will be reduced considerably by much higher than normal atmospheric pressure. Normal pressure at sea level is approximately 1013 hPa (hPa is the metric unit of pressure). This week the pressure is forecast to be around 1030-1035 hPa! (see forecast below). Such high pressure will reduce the high tide by roughly 7 inches.   As you can see below, the water level predictions (blue lines) are substantially less than observed (red lines).   This situation should continue for the next few days. As described in the first part of the podcast, a weak front will move through on Monday morning, followed by a dry week. But excitement will await next weekend, as very cold air moves over the region (see forecast of lower atmosphere temperatures and sea level pressure for 1 PM Sunday).   Blue colors are cold enough fo

The California Drought is Over. Definitively.

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After over a month of torrential rain and massive mountain snow, the drought is over in California. Yet with all the liquid bounty, some in the media and elsewhere don't want to give up on it, as noted in the NY Times headline below. And the U.S Drought Monitor has severe drought over much of the state. I believe the evidence for the end of California drought is quite overwhelming. But consider the facts found below and decide for yourself. Reservoirs and Snowpack Let us start with the most critical measure of drought...the total water storage in the reservoirs plus the water that will be available from the snowpack (see below). It is now WAY above normal.   In fact, the total water available right now is greater than normally available in April after months of additional precipitation. The previous deficit in California reservoir water storage is now gone.  For example, consider the huge Lake Orville Reservoir in northern CA" during the past month it went from roughly 60% of

A Superfront Will Reach the Northwest Coast on Wednesday Morning

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Most weather fronts that reach the Northwest coast are generally wimpy.    Only a slight change in temperature, a minor wind shift, and a modest change in humidity.   Quite a contrast to the often strong fronts of the central and eastern U.S. The reason for our generally unexceptional fronts is two-fold. First, the fronts reaching our coast are generally aged, declining occluded fronts, compared to the prime, active fronts of the western Pacific.   Cyclones and fronts are driven by large temperature gradients  (changes of temperature over distance) and a strong jet stream, something that exists over the western Pacific, where cold air from Siberia meets the warm water of the Kuroshio current.  Not true off our coast. Frontal Image Produced by Dall-E Machine Learning Second, the temperature changes across our fronts are generally weak because they have traveled across thousands of miles of temperate ocean, which progressively warms the cold air following the fronts (see Pacific sea surf