On Monday and Tuesday, a powerful Pacific cyclone will intensify off the northern California/southern Oregon coasts. A storm that would be notable in mid-winter, but very unusual in late March.
Below is the forecast sea level pressure chart for 2 AM Tuesday morning. Also shown are the near-surface wind barbs and low-level temperature (shading).
Just wow. A very deep low-pressure center (985 hPa) with a huge gradient of sea level pressure, which means strong winds. It almost looks like it has an inner eye!
A simulated cloud field for nearly the same time is downright scary (see below). As you might suspect, the low center is in the middle of the swirling cloud bands. Looks like something out of a science-fiction movie.
With such strong pressure gradients (pressure differences over distance), you can expect powerful low-level winds. Below are the predicted wind gusts for the same time as the pressure analysis above. A ring of strong winds surrounds the low, with the most powerful gusts to the west and south of the low center (as high as 60 knots, orange color).
This structure is classic for strong marine cyclones. The strong wind area is something called "the poisonous tail of the bent-back occlusion.'
Needless to say, if you are in the maritime industry it would be better to avoid being offshore Monday through Wednesday.
The extraordinary thing about this low is that it will spin offshore for an extended period, slowing weakening over time (the forecast map 24 h later is shown below)
As I noted above, such a low off the coast is unusual. The map below gives some information on how unusual (colors). The light pink indicates pressures that are more than 4 standard deviations from average (normal) values. That is rare.
As you are probably sick of me pointing out, this situation reflects the anomalous atmospheric circulation we have "enjoyed" for the last month or so, with the jet stream going far south of its normal location.
Finally, with this low going south of us, so will the weather action for the next few days. As a result, there will be very heavy rain over central and northern California (see below). Yes, they are getting our water.
A few individuals were unhappy that I noted that the drought is over in California. Well folks, the objective evidence is absolutely clear: the drought is finished. Kaput. You can speculate why some people don't want to accept this. Take a look at the graphic below if you have any doubts. Normal is the gray, the yellow is this year. Just stunning.
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