La Nina Is Dead. El Nino will replace it. What are the implications? All in my new podcast.
My new podcast (see below to access), reviews the major changes occurring in the tropics and what they imply for our future weather.
Our long-lived (3-year) La Nina is over, with the sea surface temperatures in the Nino3.4 area now nearly exactly normal (see below)
The Pacific sea surface temperatures went from about 1C cooler than normal in December to near normal today
The latest NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) forecast is for the probability of El Nino conditions to be over 50% by next fall.
As described in the podcast, the typical atmospheric configuration with El Nino is a low-pressure area over the Gulf of Mexico, warmer than normal conditions over the Northwest, and wetter than normal conditions over southern and central California (see below). But as demonstrated this year, long-term prediction has substantial uncertainties, with the guidance based on El Nino/La Nina more like weighting the atmospheric dice.
To listen to my podcast, use the link below or access it through your favorite podcast service.
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