Wetand News

 I have talked about the rains in my previous blogs and everything is pretty much on track. I do not want to overhype the event:  it will be roughly the same as one of our typical vigorous winter weather systems.   This is not a major atmospheric river event that produces flooding.   And that is particularly true because our rivers are starting at relatively low flows.   Not a major windstorm.  But it will be a shock to many because we haven't experienced a real storm in a long time. But all said and done, the water vapor satellite imagery is quite impressive this morning (see below).  A huge plume of water vapor is heading our way and is now right off the coast. The rain sequence from the last European Center Forecast is shown below. The accumulated precipitation through Friday a 2 PM shows the rain shield spreading over northwestern Washington By 11 AM Saturday, the rain has really piled up, particularly over the Olympics, North Cascades the southern BC.  Roughly an inch over the

If you were planning to take a hike on Friday, forget it.  Thinking about painting your house?  No way. It is going to be very, very wet on Friday and early Saturday, and I suspect some daily precipitation records will be broken. But let me give you the details. Let's start by showing you the latest accumulated precipitation totals forecast by the European Center model for the period ending 5 PM Sunday.  Virtually all of the mountainous areas of the region will get more than 2 inches, with some being hit by 5 or more (particularly the Olympics and North Cascades). The UW forecast model, driven by the U.S. GFS global model,  for the period ending 5 PM Saturday, has a similar distribution. 3-5 inches in the mountains will be extensive, with some "favored" areas being wetted by 5-7 inches. How much confidence should you have in this forecast?  An important question. We are close enough in time, that the models should be relatively locked on to the correct solution, but as I

Everything is going to change on Friday. You know change is in the air when the National Weather Service starts warning of clogged drains and gutters, and localized debris flows. Consider the European Center model forecast for accumulated rainfall through Sunday at 5 PM (see below).   Mama Mia!  2-4 inches in the mountains and .5-1 inch in the lowlands of Oregon and Washington.  Even eastern Washington gets some decent rain. The UW model precipitation is similar. Note how regional extensive the rain is, including east of the Cascade crest. This is the storm we have been waiting for. The heavy rain will occur mainly on Friday and early Saturday.  If you were planning on putting in some plants or planting grass seed.....this is the time to do it! This rain will mark the end of the wildfire season in the Northwest, the remaining fires will rapidly decline with the massive moisture, high relative humidity, and MUCH lower temperatures, with highs dropping into the lower 60s. Snow, YES SNO

If the nation and world are going to deal with climate change, it is essential that the public is given accurate information. Unfortunately, a number of media outlets (e.g., the Seattle Times and NPR), politicians, and activist groups are consistently distorting the truth .   There are few better examples of this problematic behavior than claims that the wildfire that destroyed the eastern Washington town of Malden in September 2020 was the result of climate change. This blog will provide you with facts based on data, peer-reviewed papers, and government reports.  You can decide whether some folks are misinforming you. The Claims During the past year, a number of media outlets, politicians, and climate activist groups have made unfounded claims that the Malden/Babb fire, which destroyed the town of Malden (roughly 30 miles south of Spokane) was the result of human-induced global warming. For example, last week the Seattle Times did a long story on the Malden fire and concluded. Nationa

Summer in the Northwest is about to end in a dramatic way. High temperatures around 60F and a drenching rain are coming.  80+ temperatures will be history. The latest 6-10 day forecast from the NOAA/National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center is shown below for both temperature and precipitation and should give you pause.  MUCH cooler and wetter than normal over much of the Northwest. The forecast precipitation through 5 PM Sunday is a wet wake-up call, with several inches in the mountains and roughly a half-inch in the lowlands.  The watering season may be over. I give more details of the forecast in my podcast and I also talk about the key weather feature of our region:  the jet stream.  This current of powerful winds, centered between 20,000 and 35,000 ft above the surface, is now strengthening and will be headed towards the Northwest later this week (see the forecast for 5 AM Friday below).  The red and brown colors are the strongest winds. In my podcast, I will tell you why

Today hit around 80F in central Puget Sound, 90F in Portland, and about the same in eastern Washington Tomorrow will be a minor step down, but soon t he thermostat will be turned much lower , with highs in the 60s. Worried about heatwaves?  Don't be...the threat of real heat is over for 2021. And as a sign of major change, a sharp upper-level trough of low pressure is now approaching the coast, with substantial showers associated with it....something shown by the National Weather Service weather radars at 9 PM (see below), which indicate rain on the Oregon coast. Don't be surprised if you hear some showers, and perhaps even some thunder, in the early morning hours. The key change is that the upper ridge of high pressure, which has persisted immediately to our east (see map for 500 hPa...about 18,000 ft ASL... today, below), will weaken and the Pacific jet stream will strengthen in its wake (see upper-level map for Sunday) The latest forecast from the European Center ensemble sy

 Several of you have emailed me, with essentially the same question: Could Seattle experience massive urban flooding such as the New York metropolitan area experienced during the past week?    Flooding that blocked roads, resulted in several dozen deaths, and costing billions of dollars? There is bad news and good news to tell you about this. The Bad News The bad news is that Seattle has experienced serious urban flooding events.  Consider December 14, 2006, immediately before the Hanukah Eve windstorm.  A band of very heavy rain (roughly 1 inch per hour) hit Seattle, with roads flooded and cars/trucks inundated (see image). Seattle's Mercer St.  Picture courtesy of Ricky Fischer During the same event, a woman drowned in her basement in the Madison Valley of central Seattle.  Urban flooding also occurred over northeast Seattle near Thornton Creek during the winter storms of 1996/1997 and October 2003.  Houses were destroyed and roads blocked.  There are many other examples of majo