Wetand News

(Note:  I will have a new blog and podcast by 1 PM...waiting on new model guidance for the storm) ________________________________________ On Sunday, the most powerful storm in Northwest history, with the lowest central pressure ever observed in our region, will approach our coast. There are still uncertainties with its track...as well as its impacts on the region. But there is now little doubt that an extraordinary event is in store, as unusual as the June heatwave. This blog will fill you in on the details. The Current Offshore Storm The offshore storm today was one of the strongest on record, with the sea level pressure in its center dropping to around 951 hPa-- in the range of a category three hurricane. I have studied such intense midlatitude cyclones (low-pressure areas) for years, and the lowest central pressure in the historical record off our coast is 950 hPa. The satellite image this morning shows an impressive storm, with clouds swirling into the low center. And a fron

 The next 24 hours are going to be meteorologically exciting as a powerful storm grows rapidly offshore. And before I say more, let me make clear that the inland areas of the Northwest will NOT get a major blow from this.   Along the coast and particularly along the coast of Vancouver Island, this will be a significant event. But this storm is remarkable for several reasons and thus is worthy of description.  And is predicted to be a bomb cyclone, in which the central pressure lowers by more than 24 hPa in 24 h.  The latest NOAA/GFS forecast for sea level pressure at 5 AM tomorrow morning, shows a deep low off our coast, with a central pressure of 956 hPa.   A very, very deep storm for our latitudes, and lower than some category 1 and 2 hurricanes.  If this storm had been shifted a few hundred miles eastward, the damage would have been terrible.   But it will not do this:   model solutions have converged, with little chance of an inland path. The wind forecast for 5 PM tomorrow shows g

 California has experienced a very dry year, with the precipitation since January 1st well below normal in most of the state, with particularly dry conditions in the northern portion where several of the big reservoirs are located. Some areas are down as much as 15-20 inches! And not surprisingly the reservoirs are generally quite low right now,  with a number down to roughly 35-40% of normal (see below).   Not good. Making the situation more worrisome, a La Nina is a near certainty for this winter, which generally produces drier than normal conditions over central and southern CA. But sometimes the atmosphere does not follow persistence or the expected playbook , and at least for the next week, the northern part of the Golden State is going to be hit hard with rain.  It may be called the Sodden State. To give you some insight into this situation, below is the latest ensemble forecast from the highly skillful European Center modeling system fortotal precipitation over the western U.S.

 I have been watching this storm for a while, and I am now certain enough to tell you about it. A powerful, unusually deep storm will develop off the Northwest coast on Thursday. A mid-latitude cyclone that began as a tropical storm ( Namtheun), now over the western Pacific. Below is the 96-hour forecast valid at 5 AM Thursday (PDT) of sea level pressure from the U.S. NOAA/GFS model.   The solid lines are isobars (lines of constant sea level pressure). Amazing...the storm, located due west of our coast, has a central pressure is 952 hPa, which is very, very low for a mid-latitude cyclone at our latitude.    This storm is deeper (lower pressure) than the extreme Columbus Day storm of October 12, 1962--the greatest storm to hit the Northwest in 100 years or more. The highly skillful European Center forecast at the same time (see below) is virtually the same, providing confidence in this prediction. The simulated satellite image near the time of greatest strength is impressive, with front

This week marked the anniversary of the great Columbus Day Storm, which occurred on October 12, 1962. Probably the most powerful non-tropical storm to hit the lower-48 states in 100 years. Unpredicted the day before , the Columbus Day Storm brought gusts above 100 mph across the region, and the storm had a remarkable origin. I provide the fascinating details about the storm in my podcast (see below) But there is more.  My podcast begins with the latest weather forecast....and it is a mixed bag...with heavy rainfall over the Olympics and North Cascades over the weekend, and a strong front moving through Sunday morning.  Saturday will be the better day. You can listen to the podcast below or through your favorite podcast server. Some major podcast servers:     Like the podcast? Support on Patreon  Become a Patron!

 Fall so far has been much cooler and snowier than normal in the Northwest. To "warm-up"  this discussion, take a look at the snow coverage at Crystal Mountain and at Mt. Baker Ski resort--enough to motivate a search for the hot chocolate mix. A more quantitative view is provided by the NOAA snowpack analysis today (actually the snow-water-equivalent--the amount of water in the snowpack), compared against the last year (see below).  A lot more snow this year! The temperature departure from normal over the past two weeks is chilling:  western Washington and Oregon have been much cooler than normal (by 3-6F).  So have much of the West. And plotting the temperature at Sea-Tac versus the normal highs and lows over the past two weeks is startling:  Only ONE day had a high temperature reaching the normal values and MANY days had low temps plunging well below the normal lows: Yesterday morning, a number of western Washington stations dropped to freezing and below, and some low-tempe

A significant solar event is occurring and an aurora is visible to the north over northern Washington State right now. Here is a recent image from Greg Johnson's Skunk Bay Weather website: And the latest NOAA Space Weather Aurora forecast for 11:30 PM shows the core of it just north of us. NOAA's Space Weather Center had put out a geomagnetic solar storm watch, which has clearly verified.  Over the weekend a coronal mass ejection (CME)...or solar flare... erupted on the sun's surface and raced towards the earth.  The interactions of this ejection from the sun and the Earth's magnetic field resulted in the aurora, which was visible over the northern U.S. and Canada. A measure of the amplitude of the solar event is the Kp index, which has reached a fairly high level of 6: Do you want a real treat?  Here is a video of the aurora action from Skunk Bay: The skies are generally clear over Washington and southern BC, so we are in a good situation to view the celestial show. A