Wetand News

 Forget the snow.   There will be lots in the mountains and some limited lowland areas will get a few inches of the white stuff as well. It is the extreme cold you need to pay attention to.   Back in June, I couldn't believe the extreme conditions the models were forecasting--including both daily and all-time records.   The models are doing it again, but this time for record-breaking cold. Cold enough to kill those attempting to live outside without shelter--making it mandatory to get all homeless inside no later than Saturday. Consider the surface air temperature forecast from the European Center global model for SeaTac Airport.  After Saturday, high temperatures will remain below freezing for at least a week, with December 30th having a high of 17F and a low of -1F, which would be the ALL TIME RECORD LOW FOR ALL TIME FOR SEATTLE. What about temperatures in Seattle forecast by the University of Washington system run by my group (see below)?    I really can't believe it.  Tempe

It will not be a little ironic that a year that brought record-breaking high temperatures in June, also brings extreme cold in December. But life is full of contradictions and ironies..... The latest model runs suggest that immediately after Christmas temperatures will plummet to levels not seen in our region for perhaps decades. Let's begin with the European Center ensemble forecasts....averages of many runs from the best global prediction center in the world. For Seattle-Tacoma Airport, highs only reaching the mid-20s, and lows in the teens--something we haven't seen in several years.  A totally hard freeze. In Yakima, highs reaching only the single digits and lows plummeting below zero. And do I dare show you the forecasts for Spokane?  Where one day never gets above zero? The surface forecast for 4 PM next Tuesday is one of extremes. Extreme high pressure over the northeast Pacific. Extreme cold (white and purple colors) over the interior of BC and just east of the

We are about to experience the coldest weather since last February, with temperatures falling into the lower 20s over the western lowlands, with teens over eastern Washington. We are about to transition between seasonal "warmth" and upcoming icebox conditions, so start preparing now--the transition is quite certain at this point. The upper-level pattern today (shown or 10 PM tonight at 500 hPa--about 18,000 ft) shows a very high amplitude wave pattern with a HUGE ridge of high pressure over the eastern Pacific and a deep low off northern CA.  The coldest low-level air is now east of the Rockies at this point and temperatures over the Northwest are seasonal. That is going to change. By Wednesday afternoon, a moderate upper-level trough pushes down over our coastal waters, bringing an initial pulse of colder air. But December 24-25th will bring an even more powerful upper-level trough, that will push Arctic air across the region and the potential for lowland snow (not the ital

The water situation is rapidly turning highly favorable for the West Coast, with particularly good news for California.   And bountiful snow is in store for the Northwest as well.  But no lowland snow is forecast for western Washington--so if you were looking for a white Christmas near sea level, that looks improbable now. The total precipitation amount (depth of water from rain and melted snow) through 4 PM next Saturday is impressive, with over five inches in the Cascades and MORE THAN ten inches for the Sierra Nevada. In terms of snowfall,  massive amounts will fall over the mountains from BC to California, with over 4 feet of snow in the Sierra Nevada (see below).   An extraordinarily valuable addition to the snowpack.  By the time this event is over, the snowpack for the entire West Coast will be above normal. The origin of the precipitation bounty for California will be the development of a very deep trough of low pressure west of northern California (see the forecast for 4 PM o

Starting sometime around mid-December, the effects of La Nina typically start to take hold, modifying the weather patterns of the northeast Pacific.   We are starting to see this now.  The major characteristic is an upper-level ridge of high pressure over the eastern Pacific, with cool northerly flow over the  West Coast, not unlike seen in the upper-level (500 hPa, about 18,000 ft) map for 1 AM this morning (see below) My podcast will tell you about this expected pattern, and its implications for our weather this winter.  And I will describe how La Ninas can produce warmer than normal conditions over the eastern U.S. But before I describe all this, I will provide you with the forecast for the next week, which will be cool and wet, with loads of snow in the mountains, and a chance of lowland snow in the Bellingham area. You can listen to the podcast below or through your favorite podcast server. Some major podcast servers:     Like the podcast? Support on Patreon 

Tornado damage, Courtesy of State Farm Insurance Powerful, long-lived tornadoes struck western Kentucky, southern Illinois, and the vicinity on Friday night.  And within hours, major media outlets, national politicians, and several climate activists were claiming that global warming was partly or mainly to blame.   The head of FEMA talked about the recent tornadoes as being part of a "new normal" forced by climate change. As I will demonstrate below, these claims are contradictory to the best science and at odds with respected international and national scientific assessments.  Many are based on simplistic arguments that demonstrate a lack of understanding of the ingredients required for severe convection (thunderstorms) or evince a lack of knowledge of the historical record. Have Strong Tornadoes Been Increasing in the U.S.? The very first question one must ask when evaluating the role of global warming (or "climate change" as some folks prefer), is whether there i

Ski areas are opening and expanding operations throughout the region for a good reason:  t he past week has brought large additions to the mountain snowpack....and models are suggesting much more is coming during the next ten days. The mountain snow situation this fall has been a roller coaster ride, with huge snow dumps followed by warm atmospheric rivers that took most of it away.  Fortunately, the snow roller coaster ride is over, with substantial gains during the next month. To see how much better things have gotten, compare the USDA SNOTEL percent of normal snow water (SWE) on December 1st and this morning (see below). On December 1, after multiple warm atmospheric river events, the entire Northwest was below normal with ALL of Oregon and half of Washington possessing less than 50% of the normal snowpack. Forget Thanksgiving skiing this year! But what a difference two weeks made.  This morning the red (below 50%) areas are almost gone, with several areas near normal (green) in