Wetand News

3:15 PM If you are planning to do anything outside and you are living in the Puget Sound region, better finish up during the next hour. A very powerful front, only a bit weaker than Sunday's, is NOW bearing down on us. The visible satellite image at 3:01 PM shows the clouds of the well-defined and The radar image at 2:48 PM shows the front (I drew at oval to help you see it-, with red colors showing the intense rain on the front. This is called a narrow cold front rain band and there are rapid changes of wind direction, temperature, and pressure across it. Observations at Buoy 41 observation site, just off the WA coast showed a very sharp pressure trough (zone of low pressure) and a big acceleration of the winds. The front will move into Puget Sound during the next 1-2 hours, so be ready!

Sometimes during late winter or early spring, the dust storm season begins east of the Cascade crest. The rain has lessened, the sun has gotten stronger and the upper soil layers have begun to dry out.  Some farmers have begun to plow their fields in preparation for planting. And then a big wind event occurs, often associated with the passage of an unusually strong weather front, with powerful winds raising dust and soil from the surface, creating a cloud of dust. All of this happened on Sunday, leading to a significant dust storm on I-82 between Kennewick, Washington and Hermiston, Oregon, with more dust around eastern Washington and southern Oregon. >here ). Some dust storms are natural east of the Cascade crest, but the situation has been made far, far worse, by poor agricultural practices, including plowing fields and leaving them exposed to strong winds.   Land disturbances, include heavy use of off-track vehicles, has contributed as well.    No-till farming and rest

During the past several years, I have written a number of blogs bemoaning the third or fourth place status of U.S. numerical weather prediction, with suggestions on how we could regain leadership. But I am often asked:  why should we worry that the European Center is way ahead?   Why don't we simply acquire their forecasts and forget about the whole business? Well, I believe there are powerful, compelling reasons why the U.S. should regain its status as the best in the world in operational numerical weather prediction.   Let me give you a few: 1.   There is no reason to expect that forecasts made by the European Center (ECMWF) and the UKMET office, the current world leaders, are the best that can be achieved.  Properly using its huge resources, U.S. numerical weather prediction can be much better. I am not saying this as a speculation.  This is an area with which I have great familiarity--and there are a number of ways that we can improve upon the ECMWF and UKMET approac

A lot of weather action today.  A strong front has just moved through Puget Sound and is now pummeling the mountains and Portland (see image below for 8:11 AM).   Behind the front is cold, unstable air that is producing convection (including some thunderstorms).  This unstable air will be moving in this afternoon---so expect showers and sunbreaks over western Washington today. The front was vigorous enough that is brought fairly strong winds, gusting to 40-50 mph in exposed locations, and was even stronger in the eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca (see below). Why was the front (a cold front) so strong, with powerful winds (some gusting to 60 mph, heavy precipitation, hail, and even thunder?   Because it was associated with a narrow, intense cold frontal rainband-- an intense squall line, with strong thunderstorms and very large changes in temperature.  This was made clear by the wonderful Langley Hill radar which showed the line offshore over an hour before it hit and which do

Native Americans, who were astute observers of the natural environment, had a saying:  "when Tahoma (Mount Rainier) has a hat, rain will soon follow." Today it developed a hat of great beauty. Looking out the window of my colleague, Qiang Fu, this afternoon, I saw it.  A series of stacked lenticular (lens-shaped) clouds downstream (west) of Mount Rainier (see below).  Stunning. A bit closer view by Nicole Geer (below) shows the structure a bit better. But why not go far closer....say from the nearby peak of Crystal Mountain, the home of a wonderful 360° high resolution live cam? The view around 4 PM was extraordinary, with the "stacked plates" of several lenticular/mountain wave clouds clearly evident. Pull back and you can get some perspective.  Stunning And as the sun set and dusk settled in, the lenticular clouds remained, even as the general sky cleared a bit.   As discussed before in this blog, lenticular clouds form as air i

Spring starts on March 20 or 21st, everyone knows that! But that is the beginning of astronomical spring , also known as the vernal equinox --the day when the sun crosses the equator and when daylight lasts roughly twelve hours everywhere on the planet. But astronomical spring is not the same as meteorological spring, and I would suggest that meteorological spring arrives quite early in the Northwest, generally during the third week of February.   Well before astronomical spring begins.  Furthermore, meteorological spring comes much later in the central and eastern portions of the country, where cold and snow can last well into March. But why is this so? Before I get into that, let me describe  my definition of meteorological spring .   I would suggest that meteorological spring occurs when: 1.  The chances of a major cold wave declines profoundly. 2.  The frequency of major winter storms (midlatitude cyclones) plummets and the chance of a big storm is very low. 3.  Th

On the surface, today was a gloriously boring weather day over western Washington. Bright blue skies, light winds, agreeable, but cool temperatures.  A day you would think meteorologists would be taking a siesta. But like a fine wine, Northwest weather is often best appreciated in its subtleties....and today was no different. With clear skies and weak winds, the ground could radiate efficiently to space, and much of the region had its coldest morning in a month.  As shown by the low temperatures this (Tuesday) morning (below), temperatures ranged from the low to mid-30s near the Sound, to mid-20s in the eastern Seattle suburbs to even the single digits to a few sites  near Mt. Rainier.  Frost was found all over the region, with fog in river valleys and low spots. This morning on the way downtown for a breakfast lecture of the wonderful CleanTech Alliance, I saw a band of clouds down the center of Lake Washington.    And reaching the 49th floor of 1201 3rd Avenue Building,

U.S. global numerical weather prediction has now fallen into fourth place, with national and regional prediction capabilities a shadow of what they could be. There are several reasons for these lagging numerical weather prediction capabilities, including lack of strategic planning, inadequate cooperation between the research and operational communities, and too many sub-optimal prediction efforts. But there is another reason of equal importance: a profound lack of computer resources dedicated to numerical weather prediction, both for  operations and research.  >EPIC here ). (2) NOAA/NWS must develop a detailed strategic plan that not only makes the case for more computer resources, but demonstrates how such resources will improve weather prediction.  Amazingly, they have never done this .  In fact, NOAA/NWS does not even have a document describing in detail the computer resources they have now (I know, I asked a number of NOAA/NWS managers for it--they admitted to me it doe

During the past few months we have moved from near neutral conditions (La Nada) to a weak El Nino (warmer than normal temperatures in the central and eastern tropic Pacific)--providing some insights into the weather later this year. Looking at the temperatures in the central tropical Pacific (the Nino 3.4 area), the water temperatures have moved from a bit cooler than normal in September to around .5C above normal.  This is a minimal El Nino. Next, viewing water temperatures in an east-west slice of the Pacific Ocean--from the surface to about 300 meters below the surface-- show warmer than normal conditions (red/orange colors).  The trade winds have weakened as well--another marker of El Nino.  This is a very weak, minimal El Nino.  And the strength of the signal is important. Last month, the NOAA Climate Prediction Center was projecting that this spring we could move into neutral territory (tropical sea surface temps within .5C of normal)-- see below And the Janua

If you enjoy drinking water, keeping your plants green, and appreciate an agricultural bounty--there is good reason to smile.  The water outlook is exceptionally favorable for this summer As noted in my previous blog, the last two months have brought far wetter than normal conditions over the region, including a restored snowpack. The latter is illustrated by the SNOTEL snow water equivalent map, which indicates an overall state snowpack a bit more than 100% of normal.  The City of Seattle reservoir storage is way above normal-- in fact as high as the usual peak reservoir level in May and early June (and Seattle has been letting out plenty of water to prevent dams from being overtopped).   Similarly bountiful conditions are found for the Everett and Tacoma water systems. But the biggest water challenge is always on the eastern slopes of the Cascades, water that supplies the huge agricultural industry of the region.    One key source of water is the Yakima River and its ass