Wetand News

I have to tell you about this, even though some of the forecasts are crazy extreme. For several forecast cycles, the models have suggested that later this weekend and next week record-breaking cold and snow hit the region.   Yes, lowland snow.   Let's start with the vaunted European Center model.  The totals for the next week (through Tuesday morning) are shown below.    A dusting over the lowlands and massive amounts (2-4 ft) in the mountains. The American GFS model is similar with large mountain snows, but it also had a band of 1/2 feet over the south Sound. And the U.S. GFS has even more lowland snow through Thursday.  Furthermore, the totals through mid-November are sheer madness, with nearly 2 feet over Seattle.  The American model has problems. The accumulated snow over the next week by the UW model is also substantial over the mountains and has some lowland snow over western Washington.   Folks....we may be skiing by Thanksgiving. As shown by the climatological snow graph be

 During the past day, I have received several emails and pictures of a strange cloud feature seen from roughly 4 PM to 5:30 PM on Thursday.  Let me show you. Theresa Verway took this picture from Shilshoe Beach in Seattle around 4:12 PM  Steve Moseley took this picture in N. Seattle around 5:18 PM And here are two views from the Seattle PanoCan, one around 4 PM and the other around 5:30 PM.  Note the blue skies nearby....that will be important. So what caused these strange clouds?     To gain some insight, let's take a look at high-resolution satellite imagery at the same time.....that should provide some major hints! Here is a high-resolution visible image at 4:30 PM.  For a trained meteorologist the imagery suggests a high-amplitude mountain wave forced by the Olympics. Let me explain, using a marked-up version of the image below.  On Thursday, there were strong southwesterly winds (from the southwest) approaching the Olympics--see red arrow.  As the air rose on the western side

 If you enjoy cold, cloudy, wet weather, with plenty of snow in the mountains, you will love the next month. The latest extended forecast from the most skillful global prediction system in the world (the European Center) is going for much wetter than normal conditions for most of the western U.S., with MUCH wetter than normal conditions west of the Cascade crest.  Good to see California getting a piece of this! And temperatures over the western U.S. during the next 30 days will be colder than normal (see below). Cold and wet can only mean one thing:  lots of snow.  Below is the predicted total for the same period.   Skiing by Thanksgiving at Whistler, Baker, and Crystal Mountain?  It is possible. What about the long term?   La Nina conditions--which bring colder and wetter than normal conditions to our region, particularly after the New Year-- have strengthened and the NOAA Climate Prediction Center keeps La Nina around into mid-winter (see below).  In short, after a cold, wet spring a

 Today we have a very vigorous front passage, with a very intense cold front.    For example, here is an image from the Langley Hill radar (near Hoquiam) at 5 PM.  The arrow points to an intense narrow cold frontal rainband , with red colors indicating torrential rain!  Such intense fronts break down into wave-like undulations. Amazingly, high-resolution weather prediction models were able to predict this feature but were a bit too fast (see the forecast for 3 PM).  Weather models have come a long way. The National Weather Service was so worried about this cold front that they put out a flash flood warning for the south Sound area (see below) The rainfall over the past 24 has been substantial, with some locations getting over an inch.   The wildfire season in western Washington is now over. And yes, there is a lot more to come over the next week. Interestingly, our rainfall for the year is almost exactly normal now in western Washington. Here is the cumulative precipitation plot since

  The rain over the past few days is just a taste of what is in store for us this week. And by the end of the next few days, the annual precipitation for many Northwest locations will actually be above normal, even after the dry summer and early fall. Tonight, another wet system is approaching (see the latest radar image below) A view of the latest infrared satellite imagery shows that one system after another is lined up to move into our region (see below). The latest European Center forecast for accumulated precipitation for the next 10 days is stunningly wet, with over ten inches on the western slopes of some of our regional terrain (see below). The wildfires will be history--that is pretty much guaranteed--and the streamflow will zoom upward, which is good for fish migration up rivers.   Reservoirs and dams will begin to refill. You can turn off your sprinkler systems. The UW forecast system shows a similar picture, with the total precipitation over the next 7 days reaching up to 1

Some media outlets and activists have been making big claims that the recent westside wildfires and resultant smoke were the result of global warming (also known as "climate change").   This is simply not true and this blog will provide the evidence.  You decide. Imagine if you were a journalist assigned to write a story on the potential connection between global warming and westside wildfires.   You would certainly want to ask these questions: 1.    Is the area burned west of the Cascade crest increasing over time?    If global warming was the cause one would expect a trend towards more westside wildfires over the past few decades when warming has been greatest. 2.    Are the meteorological factors associated with westside fires trending up over the past decades?    Furthermore, do climate model projections indicate increases over time in these key parameters?     In the case of westside fires, the key parameter is strong easterly (from the east) winds.   All major westside

 Just a short note. Last night, as marine air surged in, there was a rapid improvement in air quality around the region.  The latest purple air map shows that all of western Washington now has good air quality.   With strengthening onshore/westerly flow the wildfire smoke has been pushed into northeast Washington. Expect improvements in the central and southern Willamette Valley later today. A series of distrubances in northwesterly flow will bring precipitation to the regon during the next few days, with the mountains getting the bulk of it.   Check out the accumulated precipitation amounts through 5 PM Monday (see below).   Several inches will fall on the western slopes of the Cascades, which will greatly diminish current fires.   Temperatures will plummet and relative humidities will be high. Due to the incoming wind direction, Puget Sound will be rainshadowed by the Olympics, and a profound rainshadow will occur east of the Cascades. In short, we have gone through the transition to

 The air quality was terrible in central Puget Sound and around Bellingham today.   Extraordinarily unhealthy with high concentrations of the kind of particles that can move deep into your lungs. Around 6 PM, the latest purple air map showed an unpleasant story with the most serious air pollution shown in purple.  Seattle and its eastern suburbs were in terrible shape. In fact, here in Seattle, the air quality problems today were only surpassed by the conditions during September 2020, as shown by this plot available on the Puget Sound Clean Air Agency website for its Duwamish observing sensor. Compare the satellite picture today and that during the 2020 event (see below).   There is no contest.  WAY more smoke in 2020.  The 2020 fires burned over a million acres in the Northwest.   Our fires this month were about 1/20 of that. This is actually a very low fire year in Washington, measured by the area burned. Seattle's smoke is mainly coming from two fires.  The Loch Katrine east of