Wetand News

 It is often useful to get the big picture when understanding the meteorological situation, particularly when thinking about the potential of climate change. The Northwest has experienced a very warm/dry period of late.  There is no doubt about that. But just the opposite is occurring east of the Rockies, where record cold and snow are occurring. A number of locations had daily record lows and some locations MONTHLY record lows (see below). So how can the eastern portion of the country have a historic coldwave while the Northwest is much warmer than normal?   The answer is that the upper-level wave pattern became amplified, with a ridge of high pressure over the west and a trough  of low pressure over the east (see upper-level map for this morning at 5AM) There is no evidence that such amplification has anything to do with global warming.   Is the globe 1-2F warmer due to increasing greenhouse gases?  Quite possibly.   But does global warming explain the extreme cold and warm events th

 Yesterday (Sunday), was one of the most extreme high-temperature days in western Washington history.    In some ways, almost the equal of the June 2021 heatwave. Consider a map of the high temperatures on Sunday (below, click on image to expand).  88F at Sea Tac and lower 90s in some locations.   Amazing for mid-October.  As noted in my previous blogs, this heat was associated with strong easterly (from the east) winds that warmed by compression as they descended into western Washington. Now let me convince you how unusual this was.    Consider Paine Field in Everett.  At this station, the temperature reached 87F--the warmest October day on record at that location.  The runner-up was 4F cooler.  SeaTac had its second warmest day on record, with the warmest day being on October 1. October Records But let me impress you even more.     During the June 2021 heatwave...the greatest in Northwest history... SeaTac Airport jumped to 108F, 17F above the previous record high for the date.  On S

 I was worried that this could happen..... Powerful easterly (from the east) winds developed yesterday and this morning. As they descended the western slopes of the Cascades, the air warmed and dried. As a result, preexisting fires revved up (e.g., the Bolt Creek Fire near Skykomish, the Suiattle Fire near Arlington) and some potent new fires were initiated (the Loch Katrine fire east of Duvall and the Nakia Creek fire northeast of Vancouver, WA). The latest visible satellite image shows these fires (red arrow for Nakia Creek and blue arrow for the Loch Katrine fires). Since the winds are from the southeast, most of Seattle and Tacoma is being spared from serious smoke from these growing fires (see surface smoke distribution at 1 PM, green is low smoke) Strangely, some of the smokiest locations yesterday are the best today (east of Seattle).   Not good in Everett and NW Washington. Temperature is a different story.   Where the warm, dry, subsiding air above mixes to the surface, tempe

 I can provide definitive information about both smoke and rain. As predicted by high-resolution models, the winds have turned easterly (from the east) over the Cascades, pushing smoke into western Washington and Oregon. The visible satellite imagery this morning shows the smoky miasma over the region (below).  You can see the smoke passing around the Olympics into the Pacific.    Looks like smoke-free hiking near Snoqualmie Pass and on the eastern slopes of the Cascades. The smoke has reached the surface around Puget Sound and southwest Washington.   Red is poor quality and purple is even worse.    The smoke is staying aloft as of this morning over the San Juans. Here in Seattle, I can smell smoke outside and the Seattle PanoCam leaves no doubt (see below--at 12:30 PM) All of this from a few minor fires.   The Northwest is the smoke capital of the U.S. today (see below), while California is nearly smoke-free. I hate to say this, but Sunday will remain warm and smoky (high around 80F).

 My new podcast tells the story of the upcoming smoky warm weekend and the profound weather change next weekend. Yes, a return of rain and clouds. Cooler temperatures.   Lessening of the irritating smoke. To get you in a proper soggy mood, here is the 72-h total prediction ending Monday morning produced by the highly skillful European Center model.   Yikes.  2-4 inches in the Cascades.  That will be the death knell for many of the fires.  Streamflows will increase.    All good. And I am afraid that our run of wonderfully warm temperatures will be over, with high temperatures in western Washington only rising into the lower 60s from next weekend onward.   Yes, you will need to find your rain jackets and sweaters again. To listen to my podcast, use the link below or access it through your favorite podcast service. Some major podcast servers:     Like the podcast? Support on Patreon  _______________ Announcement:  I will be doing a special online (zoom) session with my  Patreon supporters

It is a well-known saying that it is darkest before the dawn. Well, it appears it will also be most smoky before the rain. This weekend is going to bring a mix of record-breaking temperatures and smoky air....a situation that will probably be more unpleasant than today. The visible satellite image this morning around 9 AM showed a lot of smoke heading into northwest Washington And later in the day (5 PM shown) air quality over much of western Washington, and particularly Puget Sound, was marginal (red colors). I noted the odor of fire at the UW this afternoon.   Temperatures climbed into the mid-70s around western WA, with even higher temperatures in the foothills of the Cascades and Olympics (from warming downslope flow). But the situation is going to get warmer and smokier this weekend. With high pressure building to the east and a trough of low pressure extending up the West Coast, a moderate offshore pressure difference (higher inland, lower coast) will result in easterly (offshor

This fall has been wonderfully warm and dry in the Northwest.   Plenty of sun and perfect temperatures.   My tomatoes have been glorious.  And the warmth has reduced the need for heating, which helps reduce global warming. But all good things must end and major forecat systems predict the transition to more typical cool/wet weather next Friday.  It is quite typical for the first half of October to be sunny and warm in our region, but on most years there is a transition to cool/cloudy/wet weather during the third week of the month.    And this year is no exception. Below is the latest temperature prediction from the European Center's ensemble of many forecasts.  One last warming period this week with a steady rise into the upper 70s by Sunday.  Perfect weather for any outdoor activity.    Then a minor trough of low pressure moves south of us early next week, dropping temperatures into the upper 60s.  Still nice. But the bottom drops out on Friday and Saturday, with highs only rising